{*** As a new Indian Government - the Modi Government was being sworn-in in 2014 I wrote the following article **** }
{ As India is on to select a new Government in 2019 - it may be of interest to read this and see how India responded in subsequent 5 years after 2014 and what potentially India should prepare for for next 5 years }
*******
First Task for Modi
Government - Crimea Accession – Ukraine on the Brink?
On August 2, 1990, Saddam Hussein annexed
Kuwait and declared it to be its integral part. Within less than six months USA
and allies unleashed their new war-making doctrine called the Air Land battle doctrine which started
on 16th January 1991 with massive air strikes on Iraqi forces. The
Desert Storm took close to 40 days of air bombing followed by just 4 days of
ground operations to decimate and defeat formidable Iraqi forces and “free”
Kuwait.
Another radical change the world saw during
that period (1989-1991) was division of the superpower – the USSR, into
commonwealth of independent states. The glasnost (openness) and perestroika (restructuring) that Gorbachev
started in USSR had failed or may be one can say succeeded as the communist
USSR resulted into many democratic independent nations. Russia and Ukraine –
two most important countries resulting from the division share common history –
economic, cultural and even political relations. They also shared a piece of
landmass above the Black Sea called Crimea. Historically, Crimea was transferred
from Russia to Ukraine in 1954 by Khrushchev, although that time both Russia
and Ukraine were in the same USSR.
It is exactly 60 years later, in 2014, in a
sudden, almost shocking turn of events - Crimea along with its seaports and oil
and gas reserves, is back in Russian fold today. The speed with which Vladimir Putin could
architect the “peaceful” accession of Crimea from Ukraine has stumped the USA
and western world. Six weeks from now, Ukraine will be electing its next
President, on 25th May to be precise. Given the 1991 scenario when
Kuwait was annexed by Iraq and US and allies unleashed the Gulf-war, will the
Putin’s Crimean adventure lead to a USA-Russia war over this “illegal”
accession? If no, what it points to for the future of world? Are there any
implications for India? What can India do or should do?
Russia is neither Iraq nor Iran
Russia is neither Iraq where USA can get its dictatorship removal and embedding
democracy algorithms executed militarily, nor Iran, which can be potentially
subjugated by economic sanctions and isolation. USA and western countries have
already reacted by taking Russia out of the G8. The Sochi G8 summit was
cancelled and the G7 (which is G8 – Russia) was held in Brussels. The sanctions
against Russia are a strong measure, however, not the strongest possible. Though,
the military action by USA and western powers doesn’t look a great option.
However, it shows the limitation of the USA in “shaping the world” as per its
national interests by all means. In this case, we are talking about a military
action against a substantial military power, in fact, a substantial portion of
the erstwhile superpower. Russia, in turn, has responded with disconnecting its
foreign trade from hard currency (read US Dollar). This is an interesting
economic counter. It may impact US dollar and in turn US economy further. It is
further to be noted that China and India have been relatively silent on these
developments. Chinese and Indian silent support has been appreciated by Putin.
The world however, is suddenly getting
fractured with these developments. Technology and economic connections that
resulted in greater globalization since 1990 are already facing fissures that
threaten to increase the global divisions and lead us to potential chaos. The wikileaks
and Ed Snowden’s revelations of the way the single policeman of the Unipolar
world – USA – keep spying on the world online is already creating an extreme
mistrust of the USA even with its close allies. The Brazilian president, Dilma
Rousseff, is so miffed up with USA that she is planning to create a new
internet by laying new sea cables between Brazil
and Spain – creating a USA-Government-free internet. Freeing the internet was
what Ed Snowden demanded in his TED talk that was delivered through Skype, from
Russia.
India has responded to the fissures being
created by Crimea and Ukraine crisis based on a policy of diplomatic silence.
Further, the new government need to articulate new policy and response creation
for the world that is getting fractured. The evolution of the world and India’s
response to the rapidly emerging polarization of countries in a shifting world
order – where strengthening Brazil Russia India China South Africa (BRICS) as
an economic group is one piece, and responding to internal and external
security threats is the other dimension – will need to be responded to as soon
as possible. It is noteworthy to observe that no mention has been made by any
of the election manifestos of the main Indian parties about the Crimea, Ukraine
and Russian events and our potential response.
Global Fissures – Is Crimea a Model?
The Crimean amalgamation by Putin, is actually
a dangerous model. From India’s point of view, it gives someone like China a
potential model of capturing say Arunachal Pradesh or Senkaku/Diaoyu islands
from Japan. China, potentially now, can demand Putin to support it in annexing
these islands, which are controlled by Japan. Further, say in couple of decades
China can lay its claim on larger part of Kashmir, Ladakh and Arunachal
Pradesh. What should India do and what should be our strategic response?
The start of 1914 was considered as a peaceful
year. It changed into the greatest war the world has seen. The First World War
resulted due to sudden polarization of nations in Europe. The year 2014, was
looking as a potential year of emergence of the world from the economic
recession started in 2008. Given the
increasing fissions of technology (especially internet and World Wide Web), world
economic and political discontent, are we seeing a world that will spiral us
deep into the third world war, or the world will emerge better, more balanced
and more equitable. Only the time will tell. While we hope for the better, we
need to be prepared for the worst.
Modi Government – Is India ready?
It is with above in mind, that the new Indian
government and of course the world at large has to keep an eagle-eye on the
events in Crimea and Ukraine, besides the Putin-Obama dynamics. The New Modi
Government will have to respond to the play in the dynamic Ukrainian elections.
Many may actually say, the future of Indian foreign policy will be guided by
how India responds to the Ukrainian elections. Will there be a radical change?
Or is it too early to say anything?
