My Interview: Russia and India Defence and Nuclear Cooperation

Few weeks back my friend Prof. Rajan Pandey suggested that couple of his students from Christ College in Bangalore pursuing B.A. in Political Science may like to interview me for their thesis to be submitted for the degree.

One of the Students was working on "Russia and India Defence and Nuclear Cooperation".

1. Where does India and Russia stand in nuclear and defence sector?

Answer:  I interpret this question as current status about their relationship in these sectors. I will add Space as well. Historically erstwhile USSR and current Russia has shared a deeper relationship with India that has stood the test of time despite major upheavals and transformations of the world. End of cold-war with the demise of USSR and emergence of a Uni-polar world created India’s economic liberalization in the 1990s that has catapulted Indian economy to one of the leading economies of world that are growing rapidly. India has been collaborative nation and has historically leaned towards USSR when it comes to its strategic needs – including missiles, nuclear, defence and space programmes.  World order is going through a re-polarization now and there can be multiple ways the world may evolve. In the last two decades, India responded to US based uni-polar world by participating in Russia, India, China (RIC) grouping. As China became more assertive and USA has taken a view of India being a friend to respond to China, we started working on the QUAD grouping, that has not been as clear in its response to Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative of 2013 (Please see my article  http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/the-chinese-twin-silk-roads-can-india-shake-off-its-lethargy/). India will continue to have string relation with Russia in my opinion in all the key critical sectors – Defence, Nuclear and Space, as the best strategy is to self-interests based multi-alignment in the re-polarizing world (please see my article http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/triad-vs-quad-indian-geopolitical-options-as-a-twin-vertex/).

2. Russia and India have shared years of friendship and cooperation, do you think it will still continue or diminish over time?

Answer: It will continue and evolve as the world re-polarization continues to take shape. (please see the Rand report https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2797.html). In all the possible future scenarios  (except perhaps in (e)) – (a) Uni-polar world under US (b) Uni-polar world under China (c ) Multipolar world (d) Chaos between nation states ( e) Withering away of nation states and emergence of Identity based (religious, ethnic, commercial) entities, India and Russia will continue to find continued and meaningful value in their friendship, although it may become more collaborative. Example, the way Brahmos Missile has been developed by India and Russia together under the MTCR umbrella that west (read US) created.

3. Views on defence & strategic decision making for the $5 Trillion Indian Economy?

Answer: For my views you can read the following articles

At Uday India

(a) https://udayindia.in/2020/02/12/the-15-dimensional-national-security-for-5-trillion-economy-a-wicked-problem/

(b) https://udayindia.in/2016/02/26/agni-5-a-true-game-changer/

At IDI

(a) https://indiandefenceindustries.in/comprehensive-innovation-plan

(b) https://indiandefenceindustries.in/strategic-warfare-phygital

(c) https://indiandefenceindustries.in/quantum-computing-emerging-strategic-dimension

(d) https://indiandefenceindustries.in/evolution-chinese-defence

At IDR

(a) http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/defence-for-the-5-trillion-indian-economy/

(b) http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/responding-to-war-and-warfare-in-the-sixth-wave-of-innovation-2020-2045/

(c)  http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/war-as-a-multi-dimensional-whole-a-framework-for-india-in-a-repolarizing-world/

(d) http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/deadly-targets-of-multi-dimensional-warfare/

(e) http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/indias-national-security-a-view-from-global-structural-changes/

(f) http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/winning-the-asymmetric-wars-matrix-of-instruments-of-war/

(h) http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/can-india-create-the-next-revolution-in-military-affairs/

(i) http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/needed-ministry-of-intelligence-foresight-and-design-mifd/

4.  Russia and India signed a contract for the supply of five S-400 missiles, and India went for it despite the open opposition of the United States. How is the implementation of the contract going when the first S-400s reach India? 

Answer:  I interpret this question as how will India deploy these Systems. Well, we have Pakistan and China as our major air threats. China already has received and deployed two regiments of S400 (please see https://thediplomat.com/2019/07/russia-kicks-off-delivery-of-chinas-second-s-400-air-defense-regiment/) .

India will have to balance its Trimpf deployment with respect to the quantum and quality of air-threats from China and Pakistan.

With the recent announcement by new Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) in terms of creation of an integrated Air Defence command, it remains to be seen how these will be commanded (under army or airforce or under a new command).

5. How does Russia’s relationship with other countries have an impact on India’s nuclear and defence sector?

Answer:  I think both countries are wise enough to understand the ground realities of repolarizing world. There are checks and balances and definite strategic messaging and communication from all actors regarding the realignment. For example, rumors of Pakistan receiving Su-35 (https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/russia-pakistan-ties-to-remain-quite-limited/articleshow/57029179.cms?from=mdr). Russia currently has two key export levers – Arms and Oil. India is heavily invested in Russian arms. Both countries are in a historical binding relationship that will endure even though Russia will have China (PLA especially) its customer and potentially Pakistan as well. But, India also has a stronger leverage to opt for other partners. My view is we will see more and more collaborative development between Russia and India as also Russia and China as well.

6. Views on the defence and nuclear deals; and how did it evolve overtime and what value it holds to acquire India’s growth in these sectors?

Not sure about this question. India has been a most responsible nuclear power since it showed its capability in 1974 Peaceful Nuclear Explosion (PNE). The updated Nuclear deal with US where US will be building 6 nuclear power plants in India is welcome for rapidly emerging power needs of the country. India has done well to wriggle through the 2008 deal and luckily with Westinghouse declaring bankruptcy, India-US will work together to build the nuclear power plants. Secondly, we will have these power capabilities without losing our strategic freedom to opt to develop nuclear weapon capability.

7. What should India do today? Are there any action plan to explore innovation potential in the defence sector?

Kindly read my article  https://udayindia.in/2020/02/12/the-15-dimensional-national-security-for-5-trillion-economy-a-wicked-problem/

8. Can you throw some light on the modes to evaluate these military transformations? (Models/Research papers)

There are umpteen references without any specific silver bullet. The Military Technology Revolution (MTR) was coined by USSR in 1980s that became Revolution in Military Affairs in 1990s and Military Transformation in 2010’s. Profound change is affected by new technologies. Please see

https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/reprints/2010/RAND_RP1413.pdf

also read my article http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/responding-to-war-and-warfare-in-the-sixth-wave-of-innovation-2020-2045/

9. “India was faced with a difficult task of re-orientation of its foreign policy conduct worldwide, after the collapse of Soviet Union.” Can you review the problems that India faced during that period and if there were any major impact on the India’s nuclear and defence sector? 

In 1990s India was impacted in many dimensions due to uni-polar world under USA and demise of USSR in 1989. India globalized and liberated its economy. But key issues that we suffered were delays in our home grown capabilities. For Example, the Cryogenic Engine development for satellite launch vehicles. The false ISRO spy case led to delay of GSLV capability by more than a decade. 1998 Nuclear tests were also needed to bring out Pakistani nukes in open and also communicate the strength of India in the hypocritical world of Big-powers.

10. Your book (“Strategic Decision Making- Applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process”) talks about strategic decision making, can you elaborate on the military based strategies of India?

When it comes to Strategy at the national level, there are key inputs that are essential – National Interests. India’s national interests are not very clearly articulated in an existing national level document. So we are left with the written document that is our Constitution to base upon the military or national strategy. India do not have a clearly articulated Grand Strategy as well. Further on Indian strategic thought, Tanham’s 1992 essay was not very positive https://www.rand.org/pubs/reports/R4207.html (although it has seen many rebuttals).

My book talks about a technique to convert qualitative inputs of experts into quantitative rankings the (analytic hierarchy process) and how it has been and can be applied for strategic decision making. For example recently we used AHP to prioritize national security requirements for India. Please see http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/indias-national-security-a-view-from-global-structural-changes/

*****

My Interview : Challenges faced by the state against Online radicalization

Few weeks back my friend Prof. Rajan Pandey suggested that couple of his students from Christ College in Bangalore pursuing B.A. in Political Science may like to interview me for their thesis to be submitted for the degree.

One of the Students was working on "Online Radicalization by ISIS".

His questions and my answers sent over email below :

1) Online recruitment methods used by ISIS (Online Radicalization perspectives)

Answer:  Need, Narratives and Networks are the key tenets of influence and also creating desirable actionable responses from the influenced. However, there are many differences in human nature, experience and contexts. Yet, there are certain commonalities - above all there is a strong identity concept in human civilization that is deeply embedded - its start with me, mine and ours. There are entangled hierarchies and networks  of identities in all of us.

Radicalization of population (especially young impressionable minds) has a long history. It may be a reaction to the simmering discontent or perceived or real exploitation or persecution of a specific class, group, community or identity. Some percent of the population will be more susceptible to such influence.

In the last 20-25 years or so we have seen a sharp rise of violent extremism and also a rapid rise of technology (read internet) driven long-range, multi-dimensional and multi-channel connectivity.

Reach and effectiveness of messaging (of all kinds of messages) has exploded in a connected world.

Every political, religious, commercial, business, ideological and spiritual group has started and exploited these connections of pure technology to build narratives for influence, control, agenda proliferation and actionable response.

In my opinion - all line recruitment methods are the same in principle for all. The extent to which the recruitment and radicalization is influenced depends upon the following (whether one need to impregnate the human mind with a meme or a mind-virus, the factors are the same)

(a) Individual Susceptibility that depends upon the appeal of the message embedded in the narrative. Further, appeal depends upon the extent of similarity or congruence of the mental model  that the individual has with the experience and information. Second sub-factor is the propensity of the individual to react or act based on the narrative or information. Third factor is his method of investigating the information and his way of thinking about the world that comes from family, education, culture and society and individual overall cumulative experience and cognitive structure that has emerged in his life so far. these three sub-factors create a heterogeneous mix of susceptibility of individual.

(b) Context, Timeliness and Accuracy of the information and narrative

Context and time in which the individual finds himself/herself when he is receiving, processing or mulling-over the narrative or series of narratives create the web of thoughts that get embedded in the human mind. The accuracy of information - relevant pick of key juicy components of real world events with the aim and objective to influence and reach the inner world of an individual who is susceptible is the task of the narrative designers. It should have some commonality with the truth on the ground with enough twist to make the mind believe in the reliability of information as an evidence for taking action or creating reaction.

(c) Network Structure

The homogeneity of the network of the individual with closeness to specific centers of memes or mind-viruses is the key to the radicalization.

So the Need, Narrative and Networks are being exploited by everyone with remarkable innovation to synthesize reality for all of us. Some of us are succumb to the narratives based on our individual biases and susceptibilities.

2) Use of online methods for psychological warfare – psychological conditioning/brainwashing. 

Answer: I guess the general structure is the same as in answer to question 1.

3) How the states around the world as trying to counter it. 

Answer: I think the states (nation states) have taken very gross way of countering online influence and psy-war methods and structure. It is similar to what has come as countering to medical epidemics - like virus in population that spread very fast through various connections. In the case of online structural influence as well - states have taken similar ways - stopping the internet, media, blocking people from all means of connecting with each other and to outside world is definitely the typical response. In that time, assumption and effort is that state can find out the narratives of influence and people who are radicalizing or are radicalized and subdue or transform them before releasing the blocks on networks. That is not very effective and has long-term consequences that simmer late discontent.

second is to create your own narratives of anti-radicalization or de-radicalization. These also have been used as counter narratives or memes. These as well are not been effective in democracies.

third and most rational approach which has long-term benefits perhaps is to have dialogue with the susceptible individuals and to understand and solve their concerns and problems. This is what has been called a "wicked problem" and has not been tried and attempted to the extent that is needed.

4) How is the current phase of terrorism (ISIS) different from the previous phases (al Qaeda, Taliban...)

Tech-Savvy with AI driven Fake-news and ability to synthesize narratives and create what has been called "manufactured reality" is already creating a peculiar blend of influence and divisiveness that is coupled with increasing shift towards "right" side of the political social and economic spectrum that the world that was being globalized through increasing multi-dimensional connectivity is now moving towards a "trust-lost" islands of identities that doesn't augur well for the coming decade. the 2010's anti-globalization backlash with a spectacular rise of china is moving towards a possible chaotic world in 2020's that need changes in the substrate of narratives and influence and also a super arching meme that should unify the world based on liberal order established for the harmonizing world else we are all becoming tech-savvy, highly-educated and yet influenced terrorists !

******* 

Thanks to the above questions and the effort spent to answer them, I wrote the following article that was published by IDR

Synthetic Reality - The Sixth Wave of Innovation threat to National Security

Read more at:
http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/synthetic-reality-the-sixth-wave-of-innovation-threat-to-national-security/

 Synthetic Reality - The Sixth Wave of Innovation Threat  to National Security

Synthetic Reality - The Sixth Wave of Innovation threat to National Security

Read more at:
http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/synthetic-reality-the-sixth-wave-of-innovation-threat-to-national-security/

Synthetic Reality - The Sixth Wave of Innovation threat to National Security

Read more at:
http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/synthetic-reality-the-sixth-wave-of-innovation-threat-to-national-security/

http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/synthetic-reality-the-sixth-wave-of-innovation-threat-to-national-security/