Imploding Pakistan - How will the splinters injure?

Imploding Pakistan – How will the splinters injure?

Alvin Toffler wrote in his bestseller Powershift:Knowledge, Wealth and Violence at the Edge of the 21st Century about three forms of power. The power initially was with those who could gather more ability to destroy others through military means, especially in the ancient feudal system.  He then said as industrialization emerged – more flexible form of power in terms of wealth/money – the merchants became more prevalent. Interestingly, money can buy violence. In the “third wave” – the information based world, knowledge became the key ingredient of power. With knowledge one can control and buy money and violence. 

Pakistan and it's ideology of extreme radicalization through religious identity has stayed in the first era and form of power. Power is assumed to lie with ability to inflict violence – as the society continues by- and-large to be feudal. As the capability of violence is curtailed the violence targets are shifted to most unguarded to those that give most terror value. The violence with the terror value based on killing children is inherent in the ideology that Pakistan has built itself on – because the doctrine of feudal scripts on which the religion emerged was based on a single – my way or high way path. Three recent terror incidents in Pakistan have targeted children in school, university and parks. The question being asked now is, “Why have Pakistan’s children come in the line of fire?” (please see the article in Dawn )

Peace pieces in Pakistan
Sometimes back, one of my Facebook friends wrote his recommendations for peace in Pakistan. He lives in US and Pakistan alternatively. His three recommendations are (I am including below the key message)

1. It is about redistribution of resources - A detente of sorts is needed between USA and China that involves Russia as well. The superpowers will fight for redistribution of resources through proxy wars. China needs a corridor through Pakistan to reach middle-east. USA will make it more and more difficult. Till some sort of equilibrium is reached it will not be possible to have peace in Pakistan.
2. It is about redistribution of resources (inside Pakistan). Pakistan is an oligarchy - run by a minuscule coterie of people who have amassed great wealth. A new social contract between the state and the people of Pakistan has to be established. The constitution must be amended to fulfill the basic needs of the people. These amendments must address basic issues like creation of a level playing field and diversion of resources towards education, health and job creation as a top priority.
3. Army and Politicians need a viable formula to run the state. Under ideal conditions, the army must be answerable to the civilian authorities but considering the peculiar circumstances prevailing in Pakistan due to both inner and outer compulsions, Pakistan army has been inextricably involved with managing state affairs.

My response was to add some points to the first three. If we have to imagine “peace” in Pakistan what should be changed was my trigger. I came out with following six to add to his three points.

4. Pakistan will have to wriggle out of being the front end state of superpowers for their "experiments in war". This is easier said than done. The problem lies with "deep state" getting so used to being Frontend state since Zia-Ul-Haq’s time, when USSR came to Afghanistan that it is almost impossible to change, unless the reins that deep state has on everything are shattered. They have become so use to easy money from outside, side business in poppy trade and playing the game of the gun that everything else looks like a joke to them.

5. Pakistan should be very serious about changing its Identity. The country has this "Not India" identity artificially imposed on itself. This has once again to be re-done and embedded at the grassroots level. De-link religion from state. That is easier said than done. As with "religious" identity come the easy money from Saudi and other such religious identities. The natural cultural identity of Pakistan, if I may, was to be "like India" not "Not India". It may look strange now, but Pakistan should work towards harmonization of its natural cultural, social, political and governmental identity as "Like India".

6."Cleansing Pakistan" from its 'deep state" will require "cunning foxes" who can outfox the deep state. These cunning foxes should have a more clear national agenda of connecting Pakistan with the world and its natural identities and eliminating all self-imposed artificial identities fueled by outside powers.

7. If the intentions are clear, comprehensive and complete and above all unambiguous, what I see of India today, Pakistan will find its greatest friend in India. China in becoming a superpower that is copying exactly what the sole superpower did so far is going to use Pakistan on its New Silk Road Strategy like the US "Marshall Plan" - a potential result being subjugation of Pakistan to the Chinese momentum in its superpower design.  On Chinese twin silk roads please look at the article at http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/the-chinese-twin-silk-roads-can-india-shake-off-its-lethargy/ and scenario that I painted in 2011 which is increasingly becoming plausible now when China will do a friendly takeover of Pakistan (please see http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/china-takes-pakistan-a-scenario-by-2017-2022/)

8. Robert Axelrod performed an experiment on a specific game theoretic construct called Prisoner's Dilemma. He called the tournament iterated Prisoner's Dilemma. Playing the tournament many times - the results were published in a book of the same name as well. It is interesting to note that the best strategy in a two person game came out to be "Tit for Tat" (TFT). In the long run of many iterations of the game, it seems TFT lead to evolution of Cooperation. It is evident that the “Deep State” continues to pull up a bogey of Indian Threat to arm itself and keep its "control" fangs on the population – Power through the most basic form as per Toffler, i.e., violence. Unfortunately "NOT India" identity on which Pakistan was created has become so ingrained that discourse is on how to destroy India rather than how to build Pakistan. Pakistan will have to change the discourse by recognizing the "elephant in the room".

9. Pakistan has to get out of the irrational nuclear arms race. Discourse and mindset of India in India has shifted to how to build India for many decades now. However, it is now getting enforced with we have to build India and eliminate all or any forces - outside or inside - which will be interested in destroying India. India has not been built to destroy other nations as you would have seen historically. TFT was not used by India for last 40 years or so. However, as we start TFT now, there seems to be jitters in "deep state". How many nuclear bombs are needed has been a remarkable evolutionary spiral of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) doctrine till the cold-war superpowers realized the futility of prisoner’s dilemma. Still the relics continue to hold on to huge number of nukes. Pakistan Nuke status was known since 1980s - to make it overt and show the hypocrisy of US and China to being blind to Pak nukes - the Indian nuke tests were conducted in 1998. More nukes that Pakistan makes or more nukes the world has more chances of them escaping to the wrong hands and evil minds (Please see how much risk is increased with every new nuclear weapon Pakistan builds HERE) . 

Hope Pakistani rationality helps to remove the cobwebs of hatred on which Pakistani identity was created, given new fire in 1971 and simmered through Zia Ul Haq's radical Islamification  of Pakistan which gives Kargil adventures of 1999 and series of attacks including 2003 Parliament attack and 2008 Mumbai attack. Hope there are more people to counter the discourse perpetuated by the deep state.

Peace in Pakistan looks a distant dream today, however, as my facebook friend did, there is no harm in imagining it. Hope our dreams of a peaceful world become true. Indeed, that’s what dreams are about – hope!

One of my friends wrote on facebook in response to my 9 points peace pieces in Pakistan, and I quote,

“Tomorrow must never die. Pakistan is a feudal setup even after 68 years. There are 25 feudal families controlling this country. Now ethnic cleansing has started. Is another Bangladesh situation at hand? I fear yes. The Chinese are using this country as a laboratory to test their weapons. NATO has enough on its plate in Europe. India is combining with Iran to bring peace in West Asia, with a new Economic plan. Russia agrees wholeheartedly with this approach to peace. Pakistan is now getting isolated. Will it last?”

What Pakistan will need to escape Implosion?

From the above, it is increasingly becoming clear that a nuclear Pakistan is going to implode if it doesn’t change its path. To change, Pakistan needs an Anti-Zia-ul-haq dictator now. Else the Islamic forces that he had unleashed and uncorked in Pakistan with Saudi petro-dollars, US support as “front-end state” and Chinese military and nuclear hardware, are going to destruct Pakistan into an unimaginable disaster whose reactions and waves are going to hit India and the world in multiple dimensions in much more severity than what is being experienced now. India need to be extremely careful with these mismatching power shifts where violence, money and knowledge are getting entangled in the quest for power by great powers. 

A society that has started feeding its own children as terror value is asking “Why have Pakistan’s children come in the line of fire?”  If the world doesn’t do something soon, it will not be too late before we will be asking “Why our Children are being exploded in parks?” – Because the basic form of Tofflerian power is in the glee that violence provides to the eyes of the fanatics.

Reaction to Pervez Hoodbhoy's article on North Korean Nuclear and Missile tests

The Article by Pakistan's nuclear physicist and a regular commentator on state of Pakistan's education has factual discrepancies in terms of Indian Nuclear Programme - especially the way it has developed.

Pervez Hoodbhoy's article can be read Here

He states, " Nuclear nationalism has worked well to stoke patriotic fires in all three countries. Remember those heady days of 1998 when India proclaimed its arrival on the world stage as a nuclear power? And when Pakistan strutted about excitedly as the first nuclear power in the Muslim world? Bomb-makers in both countries thumped their chests, and people showered rose petals on the ‘great’ nuclear scientists. There could be no greater nonsense.

My response to his equating India's nuclear programme that started with the peaceful nuclear explosion in 1974 and not in 1998, is below.

India is perhaps the only country that did the peaceful nuclear explosion in 1974 ... yes a good 24 years before it was forced to conduct 1998 shakti explosion to show the double standards of 5 nuclear states including USA, USSR and China, in letting Pakistan have the nuclear bomb. 

It's really a pity that the author decided to club India with Pakistan and North Korea (NK). Pakistani and NK nuclear and missile projects and capabilities clearly have Chinese components - it's well established. 

India despite developing its own nuclear bomb capability and missile capability opted, yes opted, to wait and show to the world it's good intentions for a nuclear weapons free world, which alas the existing powers never gave any ears.

India has been a reluctant and forced nuclear power, which she built completely on its own, unlike the borrowed means by Pakistan and North Korea. Even after the tests in 1998 we have been fighting the asymmetrical CTBT and NPT and have clearly told to the world about our Nuclear Doctrine which is NO FIRST USE ! 

Neither Pak nor NK has NFU . In fact it's a matter of deeper concerns that Pakistan is in fact proposing to use tactical nuclear weapons in case of war which clearly indicates the level of irresponsibility that is extremely dangerous for the world at large. 

With greatest infestation of terrorists organization along with the continuous spiral of making large number of nuclear bombs .. perhaps for KSA as well ... we are facing the nuclear jehad factory of the world along with the NK. So please spare us the comparison... India has been the most responsible actor in nuclear dimensions ... much more than the 5 nuclear haves and other possessors of nuclear weapons.

China Takes Pakistan - A Scenario by 2017-2022

Since year 2011 I have been painting a scenario where in China will get deeper and deeper into Pakistan. Its been the case for many decades that China has been the "thick" friend of Pakistan - especially military and exclusively on nuclear and missiles capabilities of Pakistan. Bhutto's Islamic Bomb has many Chinese elements is well-established.

When I wrote the scenario in 2013 January, it was just a struggling Pakistan and the military had just started talking about internal militancy as a major threat. My contention was China will be the biggest threat Pakistan has and the contours of that threat will emerge as the Dragon start holding and engulfing its prey in its rapidly vibrating tongue.

Today we have two specific initiatives that makes the scenario more and more plausible. 

My timeline for Chinese occupation was 2017-2022. But with the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) becoming a major future - to be developed with Chinese Money (please see the article Here) I must say it may happen much before the year 2022 - the Chinese occupation of Pakistan. Well this Occupation will definitely be "friendly". Further there is element of Military in this CPEC. For example an article Here says,

"Like most things in Pakistan, the CPEC (despite its name) is as much about security as it is about economy. These roads can be used for movement of troops and landing of aircraft in the event of a war. Since we are never sure which of our borders is more problematic at any given time, the more the routes, the merrier; also, the further apart they are, the better."

 Second initiative is the Gwadar Port develpment. With Billions of Dollars from China, Gwadar port is a fortress says the NDTV headline.The article states

"Securing the planned $46 billion economic corridor of roads, railways and pipelines from northwest China to Pakistan's Arabian Sea coast is a huge challenge in a country where Islamist militants and separatist gunmen are a constant menace."

The Chinese can not afford to let Pakistan go. Their Silk Road revival plan and the rapidity at which they are executing it is at stake. My article at Indian Defence Review on China's Silk Road initiative can give a view of what is happening.

---------------------------------------------------------

The Scenario was proposed in 2011 - 

Article written in January 2013

 

China Takes Pakistan – A Scenario by 2017-2022

In the long run Pakistan's greatest enemy will prove to be neither India nor internal militancy, it will be China. The recent focus by Pakistan claiming internal militancy to be number one enemy – and a doctrinal shift away from India may be of importance for Pakistan’s internal consumption. However, what may not be clear even to Pakistan army/ISI/Controllers of Pakistan is the fact that it may be prudent for Pakistan to have doctrinal focus on China.

Scenario: Pakistan supported, penetrated and engulfed by China - 2017-2022 timeframe

The process of Chinese support to Pakistan is an ongoing process. Since 2010, China has 11000 soldiers in POK. This is close to 2+ Infantry brigades equivalent strength. Chinese are involved in building the Gwadar port – a very strategic conduit to middle-east and of course to Africa as well. Besides, China has been providing arms and ammunition to Pakistan Military forces for many decades now. Chinese are in. They are considered the thick friends by Pakistani Military.

Key factors making the above scenario likely:

USA is a declining superpower. The Obama win in the Presidential elections might have delayed the demise little bit. In 2017, there will be a new US President. Most likely it will be a republican President. US Forces will leave Af-Pak by 2014 creating a sudden military vacuum. This will be filled by Talibans in the most atrocious manner one can imagine. By 2017, Pakistan military will seek more and more support from China as China already is the largest supplier to Pakistan. China will enter, embed itself and bring-in its strategy of changing the population ratio – as clearly implemented in Tibet, systematically. Pakistanis may start learning Chinese by 2017.

China is pursuing Deng’s reforms of 1978. The Deng reforms very clearly articulate the “superpower” phase that China will has entered since the start of this century. A new type of Superpower is the design. To fulfill the Superpower by 2050 dream, will require secure, fast and wide access to Africa because of its natural resources – untapped. Also, China will need access of markets in other part of world. Karakoram highway is already open to China. China will need to build fast goods trains from Karachi, Gwadar and Pasni to Karakoram. It will also require the land transport to be safe and secure. By 2022 China has to achieve that. Their Superpower design is at stake.

Pakistan is failing if not already a failed state. Living under drones 24x7 has made many Pak-Afghan areas border residents anti-US. The people also may be shifting towards Chinese, thinking of China to be their long-term savior. With Pakistan completely under China, it will be very difficult for India to be of consequence in the new “Chinese world”.  With India curtailed, China will pursue its world dominance economically and otherwise. If Pakistan does not go to China, it is but a matter of few years that Pakistan will be divided into 3 or 4 independent countries. These countries may fight with each other. This will not allow China to access the sea-routes to the world at large. Deng’s algorithm for China does not allow Pakistan to get away from Chinese hands. China is slowly, steadily and systematically getting ready to do a “Tibet” on Pakistan. However, this time, China is pursuing the mission with great patience.

Impact on India

Pakistan was created as “non-India”. Non-India is an identity that Pakistan would like to preserve. However, that identity is in grave danger from multiple dimensions - the greatest dimension being the China’s superpower quest and design. India needs to fight it out in multiple ways. China taking over Pakistan is order of magnitude more dangerous for us compared to Tibet overtaken by China. Today, Hindus from Pakistan are seeking asylum in India. From 2017 onwards, there will be an influx of Pakistanis Muslims - in India – they would be terrorized by Talibans and then controlled by China – hence they would be forced to run away. Indian culture, language and even mannerisms are similar and Pakistanis will be more than happy to be assimilated in India. However, China, having taken up control of Pakistan, will not stop at that. China will start looking at Arunachal Pradesh and eastern parts of India as well. This will be a very dangerous scenario for India.

Options for India

Assimilate Pakistan in India by force – most readers will laugh at this suggestion. However, this thought has been proposed by press council of India’s Chairman, Mr. Katju. I am not sure about his drivers, however, instead of letting China take over Pakistan just like we allowed in Tibet, uniting Pakistan with India is a rather more promising option. However, the “how” to do it, is the key question. Second, do we have sufficient national willpower to execute this.

Should we join US in China containment?  Should we become the new frontline state of US, just like Pakistan became against soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Of course, we may not become, but some element of cooperation with US and rest of the world powers in not letting China get Pak, needs to be carried out. Diplomacy, military power and economic factors need to be analyzed and a holistic response needs to be created.

Do nothing. Let us react to this when it happens. This is a highly unlikely scenario; we will see when it happens. If the reader is from Indian government think tanks, policy makers and executing agencies, I can see their response. However, in this case, waiting for the crisis to happen may not be a correct measure. Remember, India’s very existence may be at stake.

Crisis avoidance is better than disaster management. Crisis leads to disasters. If we can see the crisis, a crisis avoidance blueprint needs to be created and executed. This time disaster will be extremely costly.

Peace Pieces in Pakistan - Can these atleast be Imagined?

My FB NOTE

Sometimes back, one of my Facebook friends wrote his recommendations for peace in Pakistan. He lives in US and Pakistan alternatively. His three recommendations are (I am including below the key message)

1. It is about redistribution of resources - A detente of sorts is needed between USA and China that involves Russia as well. The superpowers will fight for redistribution of resources through proxy wars. China needs a corridor through Pakistan to reach middle-east. USA will make it more and more difficult. Till some sort of equilibrium is reached it will not be possible to have peace in Pakistan.

2. It is about redistribution of resources (inside Pakistan). Pakistan is an oligarchy - run by a minuscule coterie of people who have amassed great wealth. A new social contract between the state and the people of Pakistan has to be established. The constitution must be amended to fulfill the basic needs of the people. These amendments must address basic issues like creation of a level playing field and diversion of resources towards education, health and job creation as a top priority.

3. Army and Politicians need a viable formula to run the state. Under ideal conditions, the army must be answerable to the civilian authorities but considering the peculiar circumstances prevailing in Pakistan due to both inner and outer compulsions, Pakistan army has been inextricably involved with managing state affairs.

My response was to add some points to the first three. If we have to imagine “peace” in Pakistan what should be changed was my trigger. I came out with following six to add to his three points.

4. Pakistan will have to wriggle out of being the front end state of superpowers for their "experiments in war". This is easier said than done. The problem lies with "deep state" getting so used to being Frontend state since Zia-Ul-Haq’s time, when USSR came to Afghanistan that it is almost impossible to change, unless the reins that deep state has on everything are shattered. They have become so use to easy money from outside, side business in poppy trade and playing the game of the gun that everything else looks like a joke to them.

5. Pakistan should be very serious about changing its Identity. The country has this "Not India" identity artificially imposed on itself. This has once again to be re-done and embedded at the grassroots level. De-link religion from state. That is easier said than done. As with "religious" identity come the easy money from Saudi and other such religious identities. The natural cultural identity of Pakistan, if I may, was to be "like India" not "Not India". It may look strange now, but Pakistan should work towards harmonization of its natural cultural, social, political and governmental identity as "Like India".

6."Cleansing Pakistan" from its 'deep state" will require "cunning foxes" who can outfox the deep state. These cunning foxes should have a more clear national agenda of connecting Pakistan with the world and its natural identities and eliminating all self-imposed artificial identities fueled by outside powers.

7. If the intentions are clear, comprehensive and complete and above all unambiguous, what I see of India today, Pakistan will find its greatest friend in India. China in becoming a superpower that is copying exactly what the sole superpower did so far is going to use Pakistan on its New Silk Road Strategy like the US "Marshall Plan" - a potential result being subjugation of Pakistan to the Chinese momentum on its superpower design.  On Chinese twin silk roads please looks at the article at
http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/the-chinese-twin-silk-roads-can-india-shake-off-its-lethargy/

8. Robert Axelrod performed an experiment on a specific game theoretic construct called Prisoner's Dilemma. He called the tournament iterated Prisoner's Dilemma. Playing the tournament many times - the results were published in a book of the same name as well. It is interesting to note that the best strategy in a two person game came out to be "Tit for Tat" (TFT). In the long run of many iterations of the game, it seems TFT lead to evolution of Cooperation. It is evident that the “Deep State” continues to pull up a bogey of Indian Threat to arm itself and keep its "control" fangs on the population. Unfortunately "NOT India" identity on which Pakistan was created has become so ingrained that discourse is on how to destroy India rather than how to build Pakistan. Pakistan will have to change the discourse by recognizing the "elephant in the room".

9. Pakistan has to get out of the irrational nuclear arms race. Discourse and mindset of India in India has shifted to how to build India for many decades now. However, it is now getting enforced with we have to build India and eliminate all or any forces - outside or inside - which will be interested in destroying India. India has not been built to destroy other nations as you would have seen historically. TFT was not used by India for last 40 years or so. However, as we start TFT now, there seems to be Jitters in "deep state". How many nuclear bombs are needed has been a remarkable evolutionary spiral of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) doctrine till the cold war superpowers realized the futility of prisoners dilemma. Still the relics continue to hold on to huge number of nukes. Pakistan Nuke status was known since 1980s - to make it overt and show the hypocrisy of US and China to being blind to Pak nukes - the Indian nuke tests were conducted in 1998. More nukes that Pakistan makes or more nukes the world has more chances of they escaping to the wrong hands and evil minds. Hope Pakistani rationality helps to remove the cobwebs of hatred on which Pakistani identity was created, given new fire in 1971 and simmering through Zia Ul Haq's radical islamicization of Pakistan which gives Kargil adventures of 1999 and series of attacks including 2003 Parliament attack or 2008 Mumbai attack. Hope there are more people to counter the discourse perpetuated by the deep state.

Peace in Pakistan looks a distant dream today, however, as my facebook friend did, there is no harm in imagining it. Hope our dreams of a peaceful world become true. Indeed, that’s what dreams are about – hope!