Bloodletting - only effective treatment for Hemochromatosis

In his fascinating book "Survival of the sickest" Dr Sharon Maolem states

... an ancient medical practice (bloodletting) that "modern" medical science dismissed out of hand is the only effective treatment for Hemochromatosis ...

The lesson for medical science is simple one - there is much more than the scientific community doesnt understand than there is that it does understand.


I think this is a amazing lesson of acting without deeply investigating what is going on! Blood letting - or simply bleeding patients off - is after all not a bad a option - it was in vogue before 20th century any way!

Network Centric Warfare - How to understand this?

The Shift to Network Centricity

Network Centric Warfare is projected as a radically different way to prosecute wars compared to the existing ways which are considered as extrapolation of past wars. The Network Centricity in Warfare is enabled by advances made in technologies for what is termed the C4ISR (Command Control Communication Computers Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance) Systems. Combat systems based force or platform centric combat forces of the previous eras need to transform to Network centric combat forces to take care of fundamental shifts in the way networks are replacing hierarchies in various domains – Defence, Business, Governance or even in society at large.

Network Centric Warfare – The way it will be

The questions that need to be answered are what are the possible paths that current platform centric combat forces can or will take to transform into network centric combat force. These questions are based on the premise that warfare of the future will be network centric – there is ample evidence in various domains and advances made in studies of various forms of Networks already indicates that way we organize – the natural way is network centric. Be this the genome map, or neural networks in the human minds or social networks or business organizations, networks are the most natural way structures evolve.

Another way one can study this is by describing a generic framework of what the Network centric warfare will look like and then develop concepts, needs, doctrines and force structures to take care of these needs. Presumably these will be different from the existing needs.

Network Centric Warfare – Studying its nature

How does one study the nature of Network Centric Warfare? Since it is still forming, the study needs to focus on the way

(1) How networks happen naturally or are designed artificially?

(2) What happens to the elements or nodes of the networks and what are the links of the networks that emerge in time due to narural or artificial processes?

(3) What happens when the nodes of the network are intelligent themselves and forms the links as per the context or situation? Further what happens when the nodes are intelligent and learn from past as well?

(4)What happens when networks have human actors as nodes or even intelligent links between nodes?

(5) What happens when

a. Networks interact with other Networks

b. Networks interact with strict Hierarchies

c.Networks interact with loosely couples hierarchical networks

d. Networks compete with other Networkse. Networks compete with strict Hierarchies

f. Networks compete with hierarchical networks

Can one use hierarchy to understand and study Network Centric Warfare?

The way humans have been solving problems is hierarchical. In a hierarchy the lower level feeeds into higher levels and the top levels has the impacts of all the lower processes. One such hierarchy of conceptual levels for NCW has been defined as

Level 1: Force Level Characteristics of the NC Warfare – the so called Emergent Properties

Level 2: Decision Characteristics – speed and soundness of decisions are two important parameters

Level 3: Information level characterics - from relevance to accuracy many parameters of data, information and to some extent knowledge also comes into picture

Level 4: Network level characteristics – the way networks function – concurrency, reliablity etc are some of the parameters

Level 5: Physical properties of Networks – bandwidth, etc.

Can one think of another way to study NCW, non-hierarchical way as that is more closer to the natural networked form. Or for example markets forms of organization can help in studying the true nature as exemplified by Starfishes organizations – the so called leaderless organizations. Can network thinking be used for studying Network centric warfare?

What are the Ways of studying NCW – The Potential Methodologies

We know four different ways of studying any system and its properties

• Direct, empirical Measurement or observation of system behaviour
• Mathematical Modeling – analytical modeling to model the system
• Expert Judgment
• Simulation – Typically computer simulation of the system

The new ways of agent based simulation and artificial life techniques – combining cellular automata with Genetic Algorithms (GA) are another modern techniques of studying a complex system with emergent properties. However, from the puritan point of view these techniques come under simulations per-se.

The platform centric warfare has been studied through simulations, mathematical modeling, direct historical analysis of past data, expert judgment etc. However, in the NCW study, for the time being one has to resort to simulations and modeling as neither the experts are available nor enough historical data. Still, we need to explore all forms of system study technique and levels one need to study these need to be deciphered.

Social Network Analysis (SNA) has come up as a new way of studying networks, With large body of work, some defence analysts have resorted to SNA methods for studying NCW. The Force Intelligence Network and Command (FINC) methodology being one example.

Network Centric Combat Force (NCCF)

Once the NCW studies have been carried out, various elements of NCCF, its doctrine, its force structure, the way its information flows should be enabled, the way decisions should be explored and actions taken, will emerge. These can then be incorporated into operational concepts development.

Danish Industry Bench mark report

global benchmark
report 2008
DI ANALYSIS

(Danish Industry Report) 84 indicators divided into 6 main categories

• Growth and development
• Competitiveness
• Knowledge and Competencies
• Business Flexibility
• Enterprise and Entrepreneurship
• Costs and Taxes
• Internationalization and Openness

Wherever they could get, India, China and Russia data is compared

One parameter I found to be very interesting

Average time to complete the procedure of closing a business, 2008

India takes average 12 years - which is highest time to close a business!

Enterprise Mega Trends

Overall some new realization in the Enterprises, I call them the Enterprise Megatrends


1. Networks are ON, the network thinking is still in infancy in Enterprises
2. The Natural Networks are "Small World" Networks - including Internet
3. Organizations are "Living Organisms" - The Mechanistic View is completely Outdated
4. From "what you measure you know" to "what you create you learn" is a big shift
5. C4I2SR (Command Control Communication Computers Information Intelligence Surveillance Reconnaissance) of the Spider Organizations should become the social network of continuous co-creation of the Starfish Organizations
6. Learning is the key and in fact is the basis of everything that we do, However, bigger key is unlearning the previous learning - in the light of new evidence - to be ready to let go of past successes is not easy and requires very very deep capability!

Enterprises are not designed to learn!

Ignore Social Networking - prepare for business downfall

The headline of a Report on social networking says

Research and Markets: As the Number of Business Users of Social Networks Increases, Advertising Expenditures Will Rise Accordingly, Reaching an Estimated $210 Million in 2012

The New Business Doctrines of the co-creating world has to factor in the social networks. The future is Networked - we know - but it is about social networks - is a new insight and mind you pyramidal businesses built on centuries of Hierarchical thinking dont even understand networks - now how on earth these are expected to understand and leverage Social Networks!

It is a challenge!

Amazon buys Shelfari

Amazon buys Shelfari

This is not such a black swan as HP buying EDS, since both Amazon and Shelfari deals with books. But really - everyone is hooked onto the social networking phenomenon.

The news item at Informationweek gives the indication of future trends. Every company will create social networking capability within and outside the company.

Question really is not about whether or not - it is when you will have your social network ?

Are you ready for Co-creation through social networks - you better be!

Pair Programming

Deploying Pair Programming

Please match the horoscopes before pairing!

Pair progamming as an agile way to create software quickly with reduced time for testing or bug fixing, is gaining acceptance. In this note we discuss the process of pair programming and how it can help in reducing in-process errors. We discuss some results of pair programming that have been reported in literature. The note also highlights the soft aspects of pairing, which if not done keeping the individual capabilities and compatibities in sight can create a negative influence and project can be in jeopardy.

What is pair programming?

Two programmers working side-by-side, collaborate to create the same design, algorithm, code or test. One programmer, the driver, has control of the keyboard/mouse and actively implements the program. The other programmer, the observer, continuously observes the work of the driver to identify tactical (syntactic, spelling, etc.) defects and also thinks strategically about the direction of the work. On demand, the two programmers can brainstorm any challenging problem. Because the two programmers periodically switch roles, they work together as equals to develop software

How to deploy Pair Programming?

The best way to pair program is to just sit side by side in front of the monitor. Slide the key board and mouse back and forth. One person types and thinks tactically about the method being created, while the other thinks strategically about how that method fits into the class. One may ask that all that is fine, but why it should be done at all, as we can afford more than one machine per programmer!

Why Pair Programming?

Let us assume that we need to develop a component that has five key methods or functions. In the single programmer scenario, the programmer will look at the detailed design description and start coding the functions one after another. Typically he/she may be thinking 2-3 lines ahead, while coding some simple lines. If the programmer gets stuck in a complex logic, he/she will try to wrestle with the problem in his/her mind. This can some times create highly involved logic or increase the coding duration for the component. Also because of the above reasons, the programmer may do mistakes in the syntax; logic or worse may not implement the needed functionality in the code.

A programmer when he gets a detailed design description of the component ideally should carry out planning regarding which of the functions he is going to take up first, what variables and data structures need to be described, what are the specific implementation requirements of each function, etc. Then he should start coding. However, in real life, planning and actual coding typically are amalgamated intricately and actually lead to time delays and are potential sources of errors in the output. Let us say the time durations required are as given in Table 1.

Coding Activity	Duration (minutes)	Elapsed Time (minutes)
Comprehending detailed design	120	120
Plan F1	60	180
Code F1	180	360
Plan F2	15	375
Code F2	45	420
Plan F3	30	450
Code F3	90	540
Plan F4	15	555
Code F4	45	600
Plan F5	30	630
Code F5	180	810
Review	120	930

Table 2 shows the same schedule with pair programming. As can be seen, we cut down the coding time by about 20%. One may however say that schedule compression with more effort (2x 750 = 1500 man-hours > 930 man-hours) is not a very good output. However, this may not be the true picture if we take care of the time taken to test and fix the bugs during testing phase. In fact, the output of pair programming will have less number of bugs and less effort will be spent in bug-fixing. Another benefit is that by pair programming the project creates two code-aware persons in the team, which in the current scenarios of high attritions, is a very useful benefit.

Programmer	Coding Activity	Duration (min.)	Elapsed Time (min.)
P1 & P2	Comprehending detailed design	120	120
P1	Plan F1	60	60
P2	Plan F2	15
P2	Plan F3	30
P1	Code F1	180	240
P2	Code F2	45	285
P2	Code F3	90	375
P1	Plan F4	15
P2	Plan F5	30	405
P1	Code F4	45	450
P2	Code F5	180	630
P1 & P2	Review	120	750

Pair programming increases software quality without impacting time to deliver. It is counter intuitive, but 2 people working at a single computer will add as much functionality as two working separately except that it will be much higher in quality. With increased quality comes big savings later in the project

Programmers need to Collaborate – Cooperate to Elaborate

If the pair is able to combine the skills in a synergistic manner, it can amplify benefits in multiple dimensions for the project. If the discussions or the ad-hoc, non-formal brainstorming sessions are carried out in open, synergistic manner, leveraging the creative tension, the pair programmers can be an order of magnitude more effective.
However, there is, as always, the other side of the story also. I believe it is really important to take care of the personality’s resonance before plunging teams into pair programming.

Taking Care of the Pair Compatibility – The Other Side

Programmers who practiced Pair-programming, in experiments or in reported real life case studies have pointed out following main areas of concerns:

Egos – the members of homo-sapiens called programmers are found to be highly egoistic. Typically, they don’t have a strong affinity to create programs with others of the same breed. The amount of arguments in strong ego-duels between the pair programmers can not only nullify the benefits of pair-programming but in fact can actually create a permanent dent in the project fabric.

Speed/Skill Mismatch – If there are unbalanced speed or skill levels in the team, it can generate more negative than positives.

Fear of Incompetence – This is surprisingly an important factor. A programmer who doesn’t have enough skill may be learning on the job. This fact in a pair programming scenario will become known to the other person, which the first person may not like to disclose.

Programmers with confidence, modest ego, compatible skills and attitude to collaborate will help make the pair programming a success.

Patience and Tact – Pair programming takes a high percentage of patience, tact and a lot of social skills. This in effect means – maturity. It is a challenge for the manager to choose programmers who are mature enough to have patience, tact and social skills (Actually if one think these are the traits required for the project management job!).

Keeping an open mind and willingness to see other person’s point of view are some of the other traits came out of these studies.

What shall we do?

The increasing complexity of software in the new applications is creating extreme demands on software development teams. Counter intuitive methods such as pair programming definitely have shown a great value in balancing the conflicting demands of complexity, productivity and quality.

We advocate a step by step process of deploying pair programming in projects. The challenge really lies in communicating the benefits collaboration and remarkably reduced time needed for testing to the programmers. Second challenge is to choose one or two components earlier for developing them using pair programming. However, the biggest issue is to form the right pair, to show this as the success story for the rest of the project team.

In nutshell, please do explore experiment and deploy pair programming, but start by matching the horoscopes of the pair, and of course keep your fingers crossed!

References

[1] http://www.pairprogramming.com/

[2] http://www.extremeprogramming.org/rules/pair.html

Innovation Decelerators

In the challenges of innovation (BusinessWeek Viewpoint)

the author identifies three Innovation Decelerators

1) Indifference
2) Hostility
3) Isolation

Some months back I described the Innovation S-Curve at the post here
In this post the individual's resolve was plotted against the time. From this perspective the Innovation is about transforming dreams into fruitful actions.

Now without the capability to engineer social change (in the broader sense) resolve may fail initially to get the results. To speed-up the process the resolve of the innovator needs to be backed by the social engineering skills. Here is another post that hi-lights this point.

Six Steps for Organizational decision crafting

Following is the preface of my book that I started writing in 2004 on Decision Crafting

I may have to revive the project after reading what was written in the preface

When we look at how a decision is made and executed – we can see six steps. First step is the assessment of the situation including where we stand with respect to the environment. An enterprise is a living entity. It exists in a dynamic environment consisting of the consumers of enterprise products, competitors producing the same or similar products, suppliers of unprocessed raw material that go into making of product, employees, internal enterprise dynamics, etc. Assessing a situation keeping the interest of the enterprise as the objective becomes a Herculean task sometimes. This assessment involves collection, collation, filtering and classification of data. Next step is the explanation of why are things as they are. Events and trends have an interrelationship that result in great variations in outcome of their interactions. Accurate explanation of why are things as they are becomes an important step in any decision-making. Third step in the decision-making is the prediction, projection and forecasting. This involves analyzing what will happen if the trends continue as they are. The fourth step is generating options regarding what all can be done to align the situation as per the requirements of the enterprise. The next step is choosing the relevant option or combination of options to be executed. Once a decision has been made, the execution of the decided option requires packaging it and planning to get the relevant buy-in from all the stakeholders.

Most decisions that are made in the enterprise undergo these six steps. However, the time given to each of these decision steps varies considerably based on the value of the consequences of an incorrect decision in the mind of the decision maker, time available for decision making, accuracy of the data available at each steps. As is evident the requirements of decision-making starting from data collection to optimized execution of the chosen option are enormous.

It is proposed that decision-making in the large enterprises involve much more than mere data or information analysis. Decisions need to be crafted – it is imperative that data, information, knowledge and other soft factors should be taken into account together when decisions are created and executed in the organization. We are talking about decisions that have higher values in terms of risk or have major impact on the enterprise future.

What is your Strategy - if you are Bill Gates in 1987?

Let us conduct a Thought Experiment.

You are Bill Gates - in 1987.

The Scenario is as painted below

1. But MS-DOS is now coming to the end of its natural life cycle. A change in the S-curve is coming, and the industry is far from certain how things will work out.

2. Microsoft is still a $346 million minnow in 1987 compared to the multibillion-dollar giants.
2.1 IBM is its own powerful multitasking OS/2 system;
2.2 AT&T is leading a consortium of other companies, including Sun Microsystems and Xerox, to create a user-friendly version of the widely admired Unix operating system;
2.3 Hewlett-Packard and Digital Equipment Corporation are pushing their own version of Unix.
2.4 Apple is also still a threat, consistently out-innovating the rest of the industry, and its highly graphical Macintosh is selling well.

Question: What are your Strategic Options and how will you execute them? Remember you are the young Bill Gates.

-----------------------------
------------------------------

The above problem is rewording of the detailed scenario described at the Link

Creating Strategy in an Unknowable Universe

The author of the book The Origin of Wealth, Eric D. Beinhocker argues that a radical new view sees economics as a highly dynamic and evolving system with implications for companies and organizations everywhere.

What I like about the details is the description that STRATEGY IS A PORTFOLIO OF EXPERIMENTS

This to my mind is the most important message for all.

When I talk about work is experimental, my experiments have yielded so and so results - and may be we can do some experiments in the new context to see what works and what not - I am told by managers and senior leaders of organizations, that if we just do experiments when we will do work!

Understand that there is nothing like work - everything that we do - the chores and jobs can actually be viewed as experiments - hence keep the option of incorporating change as it happens.

Bill Gates actually executed six simultaneous strategies as per the post above.

How similar to Toyota's SET BASED CONCURRENT ENGINEERING (SBCE)!!!!!

Well - I know- my fascination with SBCE continues!

When India awakened in me

10th December 1971

My 5th birthday, the third Indo-Pak war is on its 6th day (if we say 4th December was the d-day). Its around 9 pm, I am sitting in the balcony of the government quarter where I stay. My mother is besides me and my sister who is 30 months old is sleeping in the room.

We live in Faridabad, a small town near the Indian capital of Delhi. My father, a government servant goes every day on his bi-cycle to catch a train to Delhi where his office is and he comes late in the evening on the same bi-cycle which he keeps at the railway station. He also has to carry a license for his cycle.

Over the past few weeks my mother has put dark brown papers on all our windows and in fact painted every thing black on the outside. The war between India and Pakistan can start any day. and there are policemen and some sort of chowkidar in whistling and telling to switch off all lights, not even candles should be lighted. There is a war between India and Pakistan.

My father has not arrived from work, my mother is worried as we sit outside the house - in the balcony. This is a government colony and we are in the first story flat of two storied colony. As we sit outside, my mother looks at the sky - and sure enough there are dots moving below the stars. These are aircraft moving, my mother tells me. My mother tells me, "These are Indian Air Force planes. We don't have Jets that Pakistan has, but our pilots are brave and they will stop them". This is obvious reference to Sabrejets (F-86) that Pakistan had in 1971 from US. India did not have these sort of high-end fighter planes. But our Hunters and Gnats were better. The morale was high.

My father arrived on his cycle little late. He said he wanted to bring some cakes for my birthday
or something like that. I am not sure now.

But my memory of looking at the sky with dots moving below the stars and the fear in the air of a possible long war and my mother holding me - the young boy of 5 years - in the balcony of the government flat in Faridabad is so vivid and clear even now.

I think that was the day, when INDIA AWAKENED IN ME!

I just wanted to get up - reach up the sky and fire Gun that I have been given as my birthday present on the Sabrejets that the enemy brings to the war with my country!

I think that was the day I got hooked on to India and Indian defence. I pursued as a hobby reading on Indian security, defence, war and history.

Last few days of 61st Independence I have been thinking about when did I realize India is my country. This was I think the point - at the age of 5! - that India awakened in me!

Fastest Growing Social Networks

The BIG 5 ONLINE SOCIAL NETWORKS
	USERS
	Jun-07	Jun-08
FaceBook	52 Million	132 Million
MySpace	114 Million	117.5 Million
Hi5	28 Million	56 Million
Friendster	24 Million	37 Million
Orkut	24 Million	34 Million

From : 5 Social Networks That Are Growing Worldwide

The slide show

Love Letters are Stress Busters - How to reduce Cholesterol

If you want to reduce stress - in fact cholesterol levels - the cheapest way without any side effects - is to "WRITE LOVE LETTERS" regularly.

Well, not exactly love letters but what generically is called "Affectionate Writing" in the post about a psychological study here

The post say the study was done on two small samples of college students hence it should be taken with a little bit of caution.

Some days back - I wrote the below post on how I find blog writing to be a stress buster...

Blog Writing - A Stress Buster

Well now there is evidence as well - just the blog has to be addressed as an affectionate letter to someone you feel affectionately.

If you know there are some people who regularly read what you dish out, and there is an evidence in terms of say comments etc, then there is an automatic affection developed for your readers.

Then there is an element of communication with All....

I intuitively feel this is a valid result.....

I am planning to get my cholesterol test done now!

debunking the "sleep over it" theory

Somehow today seems to be the debunking myths day!

We know that when we are faced with complexity - complex decision making situations we say, "let me sleep over it" hoping the unconscious will take over it and give us solution - a sort of background process.

Well - the article here debunks this Myth as well!

"Thinking Things Through" - I use this quote often and I think it also helps to structure the complex decision making problem into a set of problems and solution framework that helps one to have faster route to solutions.

Analytic Hierarchy process, TRIZ, and other systematic methods definitely have a higher chance of success than the "sleep over it" method!

Debunking the 10% Brain Utilization Theory

The brain connection site carries an interesting article on how much we utilize the brain. The popular myth is that we use on 10% and the other 90% is, well remain under utilized.

Dr. Eric Chudler in the article writes, "it appears that there is no hidden storehouse of untapped brain power. We use all of our brain."

This is good debunking of the Myth of 10% utilization.....

It takes me to the point - it is always better to question axioms and assumptions before believing in what happens to be inferences.

The sweeping statements that have programmed our minds actually create hindrances to even think beyond the limited. Hence I think the brain is not programmed to think beyond by these myths.

Well since we actually use the whole brain - it is better to revisit the assumptions and axioms of a situation. May be there in lies the creation of something new!

On Intelligence - Douglas Hostadter

On going through my old notes - I looked at my M.Sc Project - which was an Expert system to identify Aircraft looking at the pictures (I am talking about 1989), {By the way, It was called Aircraft Identification System (AIDS)}, I came across

Essential Abilities for Intelligence - (Attributed to Douglas Hofstadter)

• To respond to situations very flexibly
• To make sense out of ambiguous or contradictory messages
• To recognize the relative importance of different elements of a situation
• To find similarities between situations despite differences which may separate them
• To draw distinctions between situations despite similarities which may link them

May be these are the possible ways to ideate and then take ideas through innovation .....

Open Innovation Next - The way Networks will evolve!

•The Open Innovation Next – depends heavily on how our understanding of Networks evolve

•CRAFITTI Consulting (http://www.crafitti.com) has embarked on a project to study Networks and craft Open Innovation structures, principles and way to generate Value and Wealth in network centric world

We look forward to open discussion on Open Innovation Next!

200th post of the year 2008

This is my 200th post of 2008.

I started the year with a sort of resolution to make one post per day on an average. I think I was meeting that objective slowly but surely. Lately however - last two months especially June and July 08 this objective could not be met.

One reason is that I am involved in setting up the new company http://www.crafitti.com.
Second reason may be that since my laptop crashed and it took lot of time to make a functional system . Further it will take some more time before I get a new laptop.

Yet another reason may be that I was catching up on lots of papers that I thought I will read.

But none of them really stand in the way. I am 25 posts off from the objective of one post per day.

This brings me to the point of how Toyota can produce cars as per takt time. I think it is amazing and requires tremendous collective discipline, trust, and work compared to lot of talks, finding mistakes in others work, discussing a lot not actually doing much which most of us in large organizations are used to!

I promise to cover the back log! As I move ahead!

It works!

A small book (very tiny) given to me by a Sri Lankan Tamil in Minneapolis, US (He has been residing in US for last 18 years or so) is called "It works"

Looking at my diary I noticed the notes - reproduced below


1. Write down things or conditions you really want
2. Change the list daily until its about right
3. Read the list of what you want three times each day - Morning, Noon and Night
4. Think of what you want as often as possible
5. Do not talk to anyone about your plan except to the great power within you, which will unfold to your objective.

I haven't tried this algorithm - but it is what one can construe as Mind Programming! Please try this and let me know whether it works - I sense it definitely will work!

decision frameworks

Some years back Gartner published the Business Decision Frameworks (Not necessarily developed by Gartner)

1. SWOT Analysis

Framework for quickly isolating the key issues relevant to a business solution

2. Value Disciplines

Plots three areas in which a company may like to excel, each producing a different kind of value for customer

Operational excellence

Customer intimacy

Product leadership

3. Core Competencies matrix

A framework that identifies the existing core competencies or new core competencies that may be needed

4. Balanced Scorecard

A comprehensive measurement based approach that manages a business by measuring performance in 4 areas

5. Forces of Competition

five forces of competition that organization should keep on radar screen

6. Generic Competitive Strategies

7. Channel Conflict Strategy

8. Assess the impact of its channel partners

9. Enterprise wide information management Model

10. Mindset Differences

11. Value chain analysis

12. Seven S’s

13. Financial Services Strategic Planning Model

14. MIT 90’s Framework

15. Change Governance

16. Four Responses to Change

17. Typical hype curve

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Four Futures Methodologies

Delphi Technique

Environmental Scanning

Issues Management

Emerging Issues Analysis

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Scenario Writing

Crisis or Seminar Gaming

are some of the other techniques