Technology Foresight using ALVIS - 7 Oil & Gas exploration technologies and their future scenario 2030

Oil Exploration Technologies of the future - Year 2030 scenario - the feasibility comparison

Last week I conducted a 210 minutes scenario planning exercise using our ALVIS framework (analytical logical value inventive and systems thinking) - for more on us please visit Crafitti 

7 key technologies emerged as interesting - for oil and gas exploration fields

using ALVIS we identified the 7 technologies and analyzed the feasibility of these 7 technologies in terms next 15 years or so - the 2030 oil exploration.

The relative feasibility map is below using the methodology of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

 

1. Reservoir Imaging: In the conventional data processing of the low frequency seismic reflections are typically neglected. However, these can be a rich source of information that can potentially help prospecting and understanding of potential of a reservoir much better. For an interesting take - look at this document.

2. Digital Oil Field : Focusing information technology to the core of petroleum business rather than doing the "IT department". Therein lies the key synergy. something on digital oil field

3. Intelligent Well Completion : the smart wells is the future as real time sensors can lead to quick reaction oil well completions. what slumberger has to say about it.

4. Polymer Flooding: every drop of oil that we can glean from the available sources will be a boon. Polymer flooding is one of the techniques to get there. what wikipedia says about these techniques.

5. Multi-lateral Drilling:    The LINK tells us about multi-lateral drilling - Multilateral drilling is the drilling of two or more horizontal production holes from a single surface location, normally with the objective to enhance productivity and lower overall cost.

6. Synthetic Drilling Fluids: The wikipedia link explains the synthetic fluids

7. 4D seismic surveys: The basic premise of 4D is a simple one. The method involves the acquisition, processing and interpretation of repeated seismic surveys over a producing field with the aim of understanding the changes in the reservoir over time, particularly its behaviour during production. Have a look at 4D surveys here.

7th International Symposium on Fuels and Lubricants (ISFL)

The 7th ISFL happening in Delhi 9-12 March 2010 promises to be an interesting conference.

Our paper has been accepted and we will be presenting on 11 March.

Look forward to meeting you there.

The paper abstract is below

Exploring Multiple Energy Futures –

Using Patent Trends, TRIZ, Scenario Writing and AHP

Navneet Bhushan^#, Karthikeyan Iyer and Ashank Reddy

Emails: {navneet.bhushan, karthikeyan.iyer, ashank.reddy} @ crafitti.com

Crafitti Consulting Private Limited,

http://www.crafitti.com

ABSTRACT

Despite many technological advances, human race has continued to rely on fossil fuels for its expanding energy consumption, thus depleting these precious resources at much faster rates than they are replenished. There is a need to describe, imagine and explore possible energy futures that we are facing in next 20 years or so. This paper use a new integrated approach which combines scenario planning and studies of patent trends in specific domains and combine them with the Theory of Inventive Problem Solving (TRIZ). This integrated approach results in much more comprehensive and robust scenarios. The resulting scenarios are explored to determine new possibilities for our energy needs. The scope of research into energy efficient mechanisms (both present and future) is then prioritized in each scenario. This is carried out using a combination of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The comprehensive multi-dimensional and multi-perspective methodology proposed in this paper using well-established scientific methods results in exploration of multiple energy futures thus creating more robust solution directions.