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My Book on Strategic Decision Making

My Book on Strategic Decision Making
Applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process
Showing posts with label AHP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AHP. Show all posts

Saturday, January 06, 2018

Future of Learning Conference at IIM Bangalore - Digital Learning Transformation




Wishing Everyone a Happy New Year - 2018!

The new year starts with my paper accepted at Future of Learning Conference at IIM Bangalore


(The abstract of the paper is below)

Digital Learning Transformation – A Strategic Framework using the Analytic Hierarchy Process

Navneet Bhushan
Crafitti Consulting Pvt Ltd, (www.crafitti.com)
1B-401, Akme Harmony,Sarjapur Outer Ring Road,
Bangalore 560103, INDIA


Abstract
We define and describe a strategic framework for digital learning transformation using a well-established multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) technique – the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). We classify the digital transformation paths along 12 different dimensions of becoming, cognifying, flowing, screening, accessing, sharing, filtering, remixing, interacting, tracking, questioning and beginning. These dimensions are organized as a hierarchy of digital functions after due-diligence of their interdependence analysis using the design structure matrix (DSM). This leads to identification of a digital learning structure amongst the 12 digital dimensions for the specific case.
The hierarchy of digital learning dimensions is utilized for strategic prioritization of these dimensions towards a digital learning transformation of any traditional learning system towards an amalgamated traditional + digital learning system in a seamless manner. The AHP method that converts pairwise comparisons by multiple experts and stakeholders into quantitative scores is utilized to create consensus amongst different stakeholders who typically may have different views on taking specific paths ahead. The AHP helps in not only checking the individual consistency of experts but also in visualizing the process of creating consensus amongst the group.
 The Digital Learning Transformation Framework (DLTF) proposed in this paper is generalized enough to adapt to any specific traditional learning systems to glean step-by-step roadmap for all key digital functions chosen through the DSM in specific context. Three key criteria of relative feasibility, learner’s value and technological enhancement are used to rank order chosen digital functions for the particular context or application. Three different scores are then utilized for creating a digital strategic transformation roadmap along the chosen dimensions for the specific case. The DLTF is generic and flexible enough to be applicable for variety of traditional learning systems and can help in seamless transformation decisions and execution.
Keywords: Learning, Digital Learning, Digital Functions, Digital Transformation, Learning Platforms, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Digital Transformation Roadmap, Digital Policy Prioritization, Design Structure Matrix (DSM).

Monday, November 13, 2017

India's National Security - Key Factors - 1998, 2004 and 2017 - Networks and Nature of Earfare

How to Evaluate National Security?

The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) can be used as we described in our book.

India's National Security is impacted by the structural changes across many dimensions around the world.

1. In 1998, Feb, in a conference titled " Battle scene in Year 2020", I contributed 5 papers. From my paper titled Future of Warfare - Search for Military Doctrine - 5 high level factors that were perceived to impact India's National Security were 

(a) Power System (b) Technological Systems (c)  Economic-Commercial Systems (d) Geo-political system (e) Social System



2. In 2004, Feb, in my book" Strategic Decision Making - Applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process", these factors were expanded/modified to 6  high level factors that were perceived to impact India's National Security were 

(a) Power System (b) Technological Systems (c)  Economic-Commercial Systems (d) Geo-political system (e) Social System (f) Organizational Forms (emergence of Network form)




Use of AHP for national security evaluation as described in our book has been recommended by others (for example Here)  
3. In 2017, Nov, During the CUG-Carnegie Workshop on Strategic Issues for young scholars at Gandhinagar, these factors were expanded/modified to 7  high level factors that are perceived to impact India's National Security till the year 2025

(a) Power System (b) Technological Systems (c)  Economic-Commercial Systems (d) Geo-political system (e) Social System (f) Organizational Forms (emergence of Network form) (g) Changing Form of Warfare


In the last 20 years - one can see two main trends

(a) Emergence and prevalence of Network form of organization
(b) Nature of Warfare has changed drastically


Wednesday, August 19, 2015

Process Bench-Marking using ALVIS Thinking - Creating "Ideal" processes

Process Benchmarking
Benchmarking can be considered as using the knowledge and the experience of others to improve the enterprise. A Benchmarking study should not be considered as a collection of metrics alone. It is really a mechanism to map where your enterprise stand vis-à-vis others and how can you aim to achieve the performance that other have achieved or exceed what is available as the best. Looking below the surface, one can see that Benchmarking is a search for ideas that are working in processes that are similar to the process to be improved. However, these processes may be embedded in a different system; hence the characteristics of that system should also be included in the benchmarking study. Further, since the objective is to search for successful ideas, it can potentially reduce to a quick-fix short-term innovation, that may improve a process – but may harm the overall system in the long term.

 Crafitti (http://www.crafitti.com) has combined the analytical and logical dimensions of thinking that has served the businesses for so long with three relatively dormant thinking dimensions called – Value Thinking, Inventive Thinking and Systems Thinking. This new framework is called Analytical Logical Value Inventive and Systems Thinking (ALVIS). 

Analytical Logical Value Inventive and Systems Thinking (ALVIS) – Crafitti’s Framework for Innovation

Value thinking focuses on maximizing value of a system which also can be considered as designing a system which is least wasteful of resources – as described in Toyota Production System, Value engineering and Lean Thinking. Systems Thinking expands the focus from immediate problem, system or scenario to a holistic view of the system and its positioning in the overall scheme of things. This helps us to think about the system in terms of its relationships, dependencies and complexities with respect to super-system and sub-system and with respect to past and future. Finally, Inventive Thinking and the associated methodologies help us to create or invent solutions or design alternative futures that usually will not be simple extrapolation of known knowledge in the industry. Inventive thinking brings best solutions from across industries using the Theory of Inventive Problem Solving (TRIZ). Thus Analytical Logical Value Inventive and Systems (ALVIS) thinking is a framework for innovation across the spectrum of innovation needs of an enterprise.



Process Benchmarking using ALVIS

We start with a hypothesis that no process is independent. All processes are part of a dynamic and usually an evolving system or system of systems. Hence isolating a process and benchmarking it independently may not give us an optimal view and hence will lead to lessons and solutions that not only can be inefficient but may actually harm the system in the long run. We have following overall steps in the Process Benchmarking process:

Step 1: Actors Departments Applications Processes Technology (ADAPT) analysis of the overall system using Dependency Structure Matrix (DSM). Relative quantification of dependencies of the process on various elements – Actors, Departments, Applications, Processes and Technology is obtained. This also gives us a view of Process/System Complexity using an analytical method of System Complexity Estimator (SCE).

Step 2: Definition and understanding of end-customer Value for each process, sub-process, sub-system or overall system is created. This feeds into an overall stakeholder’s analysis – as multiple stakeholders of the process may have a sub-optimal view of the value to the customer. Creating a common operating picture through consensus building is the main objective of this step. We use the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to understand stakeholder’s key value parameters.

Step 3: Value Stream Mapping (VSM) of the key process and sub-processes gives an overall view of how much is the efficiency of the process and information spaghetti (entropy or disorder). Process Efficiency (PE) is defined as ratio of value adding time in a process to the total turnaround time. A PE of 80% or above is considered excellent. In the knowledge work, for example, software bug-fixing value streams we have found PE to be around 30% -35%. Just imagine, if we can unlock the efficiency and make value streams even 60% efficient, the productivity of the system can double.

Step 4: To define and describe an ideal process which is least complex in terms of its dependencies on other system elements (ADAPT) and is viewed with the same lens by all stakeholders and which has highest process efficiency. This is the second level of ideality. The ultimate ideal process is the one which does only the value adding activities, doesn’t harm the system in anyway, consumes no resources and takes ZERO time. The ideal process is the ultimate benchmark for ALVIS.

Step 5: How others are doing it? Identify key competitors/enterprises who are doing it better/differently. This is done through open information available about other companies or published by the companies in public. A survey questionnaire is designed and executed in other companies and with their customers to gain key business intelligence about similar process and experience.

Step 6: Ideate on solving problems identified during ADAPT, Stakeholders analysis, VSM and ideality definition. Here we use TRIZ tools of key contradictions and inventive principles, laws of system evolution and Lean method of elimination of Non-value adding (NVA) steps in the process.


Step 7: A final report on the benchmarking study and ideas for improvement is submitted and a presentation made to the stakeholders with specific recommendations. Action plan of redesigning the process along with the changes in the associated system, system of systems and organization structure is also provided. 

Wednesday, July 08, 2015

Complex Inventive Strategic Systems (CISS) - An abstract of a paper to be submitted for a conference



Complex, Inventive, Strategic Systems (CISS) -
A Lifecycle Framework using ALVIS thinking

Navneet Bhushan
Crafitti Consulting Pvt Ltd, (www.crafitti.com)


Abstract

We define a new class of systems and products named Complex Inventive Strategic Systems (CISS). The challenges of discovering, defining, describing, designing, developing, deploying, and deducing (7Ds)  the CISS require a complete relook of their lifecycle. These systems are characterized by substantial decentralization, higher embedded/ambient intelligence, inherently conflicting, unknowable and diverse needs/requirements, continuous evolution/deployment, heterogeneous, inconsistent, and changing elements, erosion of people/system boundary, regular failures and new paradigms for acquisition and policy. Besides the advent of cyber-physical systems, increasing intelligence of technical systems, the massive scale of these systems coupled with strategic nature of many of these systems leads to unprecedented challenges. Today the largest systems being conceived are what in the military parlance are called System of Systems (SoS) and Ultra Large Scale Systems (ULSS). These cutting-edge systems are characterized by operational and managerial independence of elements, evolutionary development, emergent behavior and geographic distribution. Further their life cycle is exponentially impacted and the scale, inventiveness and strategic nature of these systems and products require completely new approaches.
Key aspects for 7Ds of  CISS lifecycle i.e., Value, Inventiveness, Human Interaction, Computational Emergence, multi-level Design, Computational Engineering, Adaptive System Infrastructure, Adaptable and Predictable System Quality, Policy, Acquisition and Management are explained. Five thinking dimensions proposed for CISS are Analytical, Logical, Value, Inventive, and Systems thinking (ALVIS). These thinking dimensions need to play a much larger part in an integrated manner than the current purely analogical thinking. We describe few case studies in ALVIS thinking and describe ALVIS thinking framework for 7Ds of CISS.

Keywords: Ultra Large Scale Systems, Value Thinking, Systems Thinking, Inventive Thinking, Product Life Cycle, Modeling, TRIZ, AHP, Design Structure Matrix, Set-Based Concurrent Engineering, ALVIS thinking, Complex Inventive Strategic Systems (CISS).
*****

Thursday, March 06, 2014

Technology Foresight using ALVIS - 7 Oil & Gas exploration technologies and their future scenario 2030

Oil Exploration Technologies of the future - Year 2030 scenario - the feasibility comparison

Last week I conducted a 210 minutes scenario planning exercise using our ALVIS framework (analytical logical value inventive and systems thinking) - for more on us please visit Crafitti 

7 key technologies emerged as interesting - for oil and gas exploration fields

using ALVIS we identified the 7 technologies and analyzed the feasibility of these 7 technologies in terms next 15 years or so - the 2030 oil exploration.

The relative feasibility map is below using the methodology of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

 


1. Reservoir Imaging: In the conventional data processing of the low frequency seismic reflections are typically neglected. However, these can be a rich source of information that can potentially help prospecting and understanding of potential of a reservoir much better. For an interesting take - look at this document.
2. Digital Oil Field : Focusing information technology to the core of petroleum business rather than doing the "IT department". Therein lies the key synergy. something on digital oil field
3. Intelligent Well Completion : the smart wells is the future as real time sensors can lead to quick reaction oil well completions. what slumberger has to say about it.
4. Polymer Flooding: every drop of oil that we can glean from the available sources will be a boon. Polymer flooding is one of the techniques to get there. what wikipedia says about these techniques.
5. Multi-lateral Drilling:    The LINK tells us about multi-lateral drilling - Multilateral drilling is the drilling of two or more horizontal production holes from a single surface location, normally with the objective to enhance productivity and lower overall cost.
6. Synthetic Drilling Fluids: The wikipedia link explains the synthetic fluids
7. 4D seismic surveys: The basic premise of 4D is a simple one. The method involves the acquisition, processing and interpretation of repeated seismic surveys over a producing field with the aim of understanding the changes in the reservoir over time, particularly its behaviour during production. Have a look at 4D surveys here.

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