Choice Crafting - Invention and Decision Making

CHOICE CRAFTING – CREATIVITY, INNOVATION AND DECISION MAKING

(abstract of Talk given in 2012)

The new world is characterized by extreme pace of change. This is driven by science and technology. The key pillars of these changes have emerged as technology, software, innovation and complexity. Making effective decisions in the new world requires not only selecting an alternative from a predefined set but also creating new alternatives, simultaneously. The new alternatives need to be - novel, inventive and useful – the three key conditions for getting a Patent right. In fact, inventing and decision making as a continuous interplay of human mind is now becoming an essential skill. Unfortunately the literature and practice of invention, innovation and creativity has traditionally been separated from the body of knowledge developed and available for decision-making. We, however, believe new world decisions require a new craft combining invention and decision making. We call this new framework – Choice Crafting.

Surprisingly, the simultaneous demands of inventing new choices and selecting appropriate sub-set of choices are making today’s decision makers, inventors, creators and innovators ineffective as they are trained either to invent/create OR to decide/choose, but not perform both these tasks seamlessly, in a synergistic manner and simultaneously. This is having large impact on our ability to operate in the changing world. On one side we are faced with machines taking control of large part of monotonous processes and increasingly large part of repeatable procedures that we have designed and developed over couple of centuries of industrialization, and on the other hand world is increasingly becoming complex due to conflict of interests of disconnected part of humanity. The interplay of these trends shows a failure of our ability to make decisions using the old ways. We need new ways. There are many new ways and methods developed and employed in solving these problems. With the speakers personal experience of applying and developing various techniques – this talk offers a comprehensive approach to making decisions or leading to decisions using various known, old and new methods in a comprehensive framework. The talk details these mechanisms in cases where speaker has developed and applied for solving decision problems in Software, Innovation, Technology, and Complexity space.

Decision making traditionally has been about choice. Most of decision making methodologies have focused on courses of action, choices or alternatives to achieve desired objectives/purpose. The decision making methodologies have given predominant focus on selecting a specific choice or a subset of choices from the available set of choices. Decision making methodologies have not emphasized much on creation of alternatives, in fact, it has been relegated to psychological capabilities, creativity methodologies or more of an “art” form. We emphasize in this talk that – choices are not available upfront, in clear high resolution demarcation in the new world of extreme connectedness enabled by technology, high level of complexity, rapid innovation and revolutionary impact of software. To decide in the new world characterized by STIX (Software, Technology, Innovation and complexity) we need to re-look at our traditional decision making methods. The key methodological construct is to combine the known theories and new methods of creativity, invention and idea-generation with the known theories and new methods of decision making primarily characterized by selection or choice from a rank-ordered list of alternatives based on predefined set of criteria or under assumed, estimated or data based probability distributions under uncertainty conditions.

The requirement of creating new or different choices along with the selection of choices has led the speaker into methodologies such as Theory of inventive problem solving (TRIZ), Scenario Planning, Lateral thinking, game theory, Scenario planning and Scenario writing, design thinking, patent creation and patent analysis, systems thinking, simulation and modelling, computational emergence, computational creativity, network science and the architecture of human genome. This is besides the techniques of standard multi-criteria, multi-objective decision making methodologies.

In essence, to operate in the new world – one need to amalgamate two uniquely distinctive features of human mind. One is to invent/create and second is to select/choose. In fact, invent/create select/choose cycles are played out naturally in human mind whenever it has to operate in the world. In the new world, invent-decide cycle is become excruciatingly difficult – one who masters this will be the new world decision maker who will thrive in the world of STIX – Software, Technology, Innovation and complexity. This talk gives the methodologies in a framework for new world decisions – we call this new framework Choice Crafting.

GLOBALIZATION NEEDS CONTINUOUS CO-CREATION (My 2012 article)

GLOBALIZATION NEEDS CONTINUOUS CO-CREATION (My 2012 article)
{**** Long read ****}


Has the world changed more in last 20 years than it changed in previous 20 years? Is the new world after the end of cold war changing much more rapidly compared to the world that was on tight leash by the opposing superpowers? From 1992 to 2012 we definitely have come a long way ahead. One may argue that will always be the case in any 20 years period. Would one say that from 1972 – 1992 world changed much less than it changed from 1992-2012? Or is this question immaterial?

Definitely last twenty years has given us a tremendously fast-paced connected world, some may argue connected dangerously and some may argue pacing dangerously – as some small event in one part may have unprecedented effect on the whole world. The world built on information superstructure that has been in the making for many decades after Second World War, has definitely shaped the world that impacts the whole world in unprecedented ways.

2012 is an Alien Planet for residents of 1992 

Let us assume you are in 1992. You open your eyes and you have come to 2012. What will be the new world that you will experience?
I remember late 1980s and early 1990s students were asked by their parents and teachers to think about their profession in life. Today we hear profession word from the teachers and parents but the students are talking about pursuing their passion not necessarily a defined profession. In 1992 it was all about "competition" - how do I compete? It became "how do I collaborate" - now it is becoming “how we co-create”? In 1992 it was "Me too" today it is "Me only"? One can say Co-create and Me-only how can these two co-exist – this is the beauty of the new world – multiple me-only attitudes can come together to co-create if they seek synergy – there definitely are more conflicts as well. Yet the choices are available to all. In 1992 it was "buying a car" (or buying anything) - it became "selecting a car" today it is "I am demanding my car". In 1992 it was all about "consuming" today it is shifting towards "embracing". In 1992 it was all about "watching from the sidelines" - today it is all about "immersing in the action". In 1992 it was my street today it is my world – the global village.

Suddenly the world is facing a crisis of freedom.

Freedom is needed from old ways and to the surprise of most of us it is available for all of us. The world suddenly has started demanding less control more creation, less management more on-its-own, less of post-facto data analysis, more of empiricism and experimentation, less of hierarchies more of networks, less of pyramidal thinking more of all-inclusive thinking; It’s a tough ask for people who are tuned to last century work ethics - the control freaks need to wake up - world is self-organizing. World wants itself to be free from hierarchy. The death of the organization charts in the enterprises built-in earlier world is imminent if not already buried. Whether the world has flattened on not – jury is still out – but enterprises need to be flattened otherwise they are in for death sentence.
World produce enough food to feed twice the world population and yet almost 1 Billion people are chronically hungry. Can the forces shaping globalization make it happen - the harmonious distribution of food? Can technology help? More than technology, I think it is the people's will to act. Can the powerful shift their focus from summarily starting regime changes in resource rich countries to solving the real problems? We are moving towards a new form and structure of the world and just like no one planned the world after cold-war – the new world cannot be planned by control freaks.

We need to globalize to remove hunger - not to aggravate it.

Amy Chuha in her book “World on Fire” describes "globalization has created a volatile concoction of free markets and democracy that has incited economic devastation, ethnic hatred and genocidal violence throughout the developing world." This is really the other side - the connected in the globalizing world becomes haves and stronger haves, leaving the unconnected as have-nots. This is potentially a dangerous disparity that can kill the very roots of globalization. Borders and cultures still matter greatly. This is the identity that individuals and individual communities want to protect at huge costs. There in lie the nemesis of standardization through technology enabled globalization.
Complexity is the basis and result of Globalization

The first market crash after the word Globalization became a commodity was clear indication of how complex the world that we have has become. Complicated new financial tools outpaced the comprehension of regulators, bankers or customers. In fact, comprehension has gone for a toss – although we are free but we are swamped with unprecedented choices – the explosion of choice is not what human mind is able to absorb easily. This is the danger of complexity. When Globalization is the focus - complexity increases without warning and it engulfs the world in dimensions not even comprehensible. How to design globalization taking care of complexity is what Innovation should be focusing on - therein is the play - the globalization, complexity and innovation as three pronged world dimensions need to be taken care of, simultaneously.

When Doors are opened - Traffic is both ways

When western countries (read US) forced Indian and other Asian economies to open their markets in late 1980s and early 1990s, west believed that they will get large markets for their products as well as cheap labor to work for their leisure and pleasure. They forced economies to open through multiple thrusts and forces that the so called poor protected economies had no means to push back. The poor relented. In 1990s opening of Indian economy by current Prime Minister, who was then finance minister of India was criticized and generated a feeling of fear of new products coming in India thus ending the so called monopoly of existing players in protected economy.
Well, two decades later, the story has been turned on its head. It is the hunter who is feeling hunted now. The Asian industries due to the strong innovation capability in a constrained environment that they are used to, have created a much bigger impact due to spreading globalization - for the simple reason that their people, are more used to ingenuity in adapting to change. And the change is what has exploded due to globalization spread. In the Connected Age, the early adapters will thrive. The era of lazy, leisure seeking, materialistic, automation dependent humans - in any society - either in US, Europe or Asia is ending. We have entered the age of continuous creative work - that will lead to the future - under constraints of living as per existing parameters of consuming natural resources. Some years back an article in New Yorker noticed, “When we persuaded developing countries to open their doors to us, we also opened our doors to them. Now they’re walking through." Well, when doors are opened, traffic is both ways.

Innovation to continuous co-creation – the lenses of 2012

The age of ideas is the new world. Ideas are essential for innovation. There is no other way but to understand that idea will survive and thrive only when attitudes are open and ideas themselves are valued not the source and all the mechanisms of control that our systems have been designed are eliminated in a radical shift towards embracing the self-organizing world and world is embracing the freedom of choice.
World will be integrating across economic, technological, personal, political and social dimensions. This is where globalization anyway is leading us. The waves of change explosions being seen now will take in its stride all forms of controls structures – be it military, intelligence communities – state actors, non-state actors or even terror creating structures. This change will create churn – upheavals that the residents of 1972 or 1992 cannot digest. We are in planet 2012 which is markedly different – fundamentally different than the planet 1972 or planet 1992.

New ideas are needed to solve the new problems. These ideas perhaps need to be applied in new ways may be in new contexts. These ideas are needed as new are seeking new results, new structures, new systems, new ways to understand, new ways to create and may be thrive in the world demands freedom to choose to create the new world. Mankind has survived, thrived and sustained through ingenuity, adaptation and innovation. However, the challenges of the Globalizing Innovation Complexity (GIX) are to be met – if at all we have to meet these – through continuous co-creation. A model of working where minds put together their individual unique capabilities and identities to create a solution that will solve real tough problems that we are going to face in planet 2012.
We have the minds, the models the means – what is needed is a lens to view planet 2012 not from lenses of planet 1992 or planet 1972 but the new lenses that we have. With these lenses, the globalization will lead to changes for making the world a hunger free planet, not exercising military actions or regime changes on some whims of mere thought of nuclear weapons. Hope the residents of 1992 wake up to the planet of 2012 and are given the lenses of planet 2012.

Track Chair - International Symposium on Analytic Hierarchy Process, Washington, US, June-July 2014

As Track Chair on Disaster Management and Risk Analysis at The International Symposium on Analytic Hierarchy Process - 2014, I have been soliciting abstracts of papers for AHP/ANP applications on disaster management and risk analysis.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As Track chair, I have received abstracts under various themes as below. For each session (each composed of a maximum 4 papers) I still have some slots under each session. Organizers have extended the date of final submission so we can accommodate more papers. (each paper should be an application, extension or development of AHP/ANP technique for disaster and risk!

The following is the tentative list - please send your abstract to navneet.bhushan@crafitti.com to be included under these tracks.

(a) Session: RISK AND CRISIS OF INCREASINGLY NETWORKED/COMPLEX WORLD

Paper 1: Social Media Risk Management Strategy : Applying Analytical Hierarchy Process
Paper 2: An integrated approach for management of global risks
Paper 3:
Paper 4:

(b) EXPLAINING, UNDERSTANDING AND RESPONDING TO BUSINESS/INDUSTRIAL
RISKS, CRISIS AND DISASTERS

Paper 5: Improved Project Risk Management using historical risk information and AHP
Paper 6: AHP AS TOOL FOR HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT IN THE R&D SECTOR
Paper 7:
Paper 8:

(c) MILITARY, SECURITY AND WAR - RISKS, CRISIS AND DISASTERS

Paper 9: A METHOD OF RISK ANALYSIS AND DISASTER MANAGEMENT USING ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS: AN APPLICATION TO AIR DEFENSE SYSTEM
Paper 10: Crisis Mitigation in Strategic Planning using AHP
Paper 11: Nuclear Scenario in South Asia
Paper 12:

(d) TECHNOLOGY, INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY AND INNOVATION - RISKS, CRISIS
AND DISASTERS

Paper 13: RISK ASSESSMENT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LEAN ARCHITECTURE FOR CONTROL SYSTEM OF AN AERO ENGINE
Paper 14: RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT DURING DEVELOPMENT OF GAS TURBINE ENGINE SUB-SYSTEMS
Paper 15:
Paper 16:

Google Trends - Patents, Innovation, Invention, Globalization, Complexity

3 Events - in 20 years - Globalizing Innovation Complexity

THE GIX BANG WORLD - 1991 Gulf War to 2011 Operation Geronimo

It is remarkable that three important violent events separated by two decades that ushered us to the new millennium have been the catalysts in defining and shaping the world that we have been calling globalization. When Iraq annexed Kuwait in August 1990, it was considered a defining moment of shift from cold war of bipolar era. January 1991 Gulf War – operation desert storm and unique ways in which it was conducted by the United States resulted in multiple experts proclaiming the start and application of a Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA). The unprecedented interplay and cohesion obtained by integration of precision technologies, networks, and information technologies was a remarkable demonstration of extent to which new military operations will depend upon knowledge and networking. This was a shocking surprise to military commanders who were still indoctrinated in the old ways of mass destruction and mass combat power to defeat massed armies.

Ten years later it was the turn of the have-nots to attack the very seat of economic power represented in the twin-towers of the world trade center thereby reducing it to rubble. The permanent etching that Osama Bin Laden has left in the world’s especially US psyche despite the powerful US defense forces perfecting the RMA’s that they created, once again reiterated the power of knowledge and networks. The way September 11, 2001, was executed against the most powerful nation of the world, speaks of three main capabilities – Globalization, Complexity and Innovation.

Ten years further down, in May 2011, US responded by not only finding the architect of 9/11 attacks, but also killing him in an unusually secure army area in Abbottabad, Pakistan. Operation codenamed Neptune Spear or Operation Geronimo was a culmination of search for Osama Bin Laden from 2002 onwards. This required a comprehensive amount of resources to search, track and then plan the operation in a manner that was to be hidden even from the local military and information gatherers who could have alerted the target. Once, again we witnessed three key capabilities – Globalization, Complexity and Innovation.

These three violent events are just a sample, albeit with very violent results, of the interplay of the three capabilities of the new world. This world is based on the ability of each one of us to leverage and exploit knowledge and connectivity. Success in this new world requires ability to search for knowledge, create new knowledge, identify the knowledge pieces, convert these pieces into creating new value in terms of solutions, and flow it through the networks of globalizing world in an efficient manner, so as it reaches the site of the problem in space and time in a least wasteful manner.

THE GLOBALIZING INNOVATION COMPLEXITY - THE GIX BANG WORLD from Google trends

How to solve Complex Problems? Complexify it more!

Three Quotes from US Army Magazine Parameters in 2002

-------------------

[Ref] Adams T.K. (2001), Future Warfare and the Decline of Human Decision Making, Parameters, US Army War College Quarterly, Winter 2001-02, 57-71.

In future, tactical warfare will be given completely to automated systems. Human beings will just retain control at the highest level, making strategic decisions about where and when to strike and/or overall objective of the conflict.

-----------------------------

[Ref] Nygren K.P., Emerging Technologies and Exponential Change: Implications for Army Transformation, Parameters, US Army War College Quarterly, Summer 2002, 86-99.

Despite the fact that out technologies, economy and society have become extremely complex to be comprehensible by an individual, the leaders of the military, government and business can still effectively function, compete and improve their abilities to achieve objectives. This is possible due to organizational networks that can blend the distinct knowledge of their individual members into solutions and continuously adapt to changing knowledge requirements. This results in self-organizing systems that both defy centralized management and have changed the meaning of individual accountability.

“Delivering synergism” is the new mantra of the modern innovative enterprises. Only networks can provide this ability, rigid hierarchies are replacing.

--------------------------------------

[Ref] Liotta P.H., Chaos as Strategy, Parameters, US Army War College Quarterly – Summer 2002, 47-56.

Attacking dominant players with rational decision making processes – balancing resources and constraints, means and ends, chaos strategist will induce decision paralysis.

DIXGLEACK for GIXBang World

In the Globalizing Innovation compleXity (GIXBang) world, what are the dimensions that enterprises - large and small need to focus on? Before we explore this question, let me explain the GIXBang world as I characterized it sometime back at this post
I think - GIX will change the actors and the rules will be defined and created as the GIX Bang move faster and faster. So all those actors who want to follow command and control and want to control GIX Perestroika and GIX Glasnost (remember Gorbachev in late 1980s) - should really understand the GIXBang - it is all about co-creation. If you are not co-creating, you are out!

What should Enterprises focus on in the GIXBang World?

The DIXGLEACK Model gives nine dimensions or pillars for crafting success in the GIXBang World. These dimensions are:

1. Decision Making: How does the enterprise make decisions at all levels? This is not a trivial question. Despite the centuries of work, it is not known. In fact, typically this is not studied. Understand how decisions are made and create a continuous improvement capability to make decisions at all levels of the enterprise. Decisions need to be Engineered!

2. Innovation: How does the enterprise innovates? This is also a non-trivial question. Innovation need to be crafted at all levels of the enterprise.

3. compleXity: How does the enterprise embrace complexity? Does the enterprise optimize complexity at all levels? compleXity need to be Embraced?

4. Globalization: How does the enterprise explore its globalization and how does the enterprise experiment with globalization? The pace at which globalization need to happen should be balanced. Globalization need to be Explored and Experimented with?

5. Learning: How does the enterpise design Learning at all levels. Traditionally enterprises are not designed to learn. Learning requires relaxed alterness, experience immersion, active processing of experiences. Learning need to be designed in the enterprise.

6. Entropy: Meaure of disorder is enterprise entropy. How to utilize entropy rather than demolish enterprise structure is a question that needs to be answered through continuous exploration. Entropy need to be utlized for ideation and exploration.

7. Adaptability: How does the enterprise adapts to change. As we know the best way to adapt to change is to create it. Still there are extreneous factors that need to be understood as change is part of evolution anyway. Adapability should be the inherent mindset of the enterprise.

8. Customer Value: The most important reason that enterprise exists is that it has customers. What value it is delivering and how to continuously enhance the value should be paramount for the enterprise. Everything else is part of delivering value.

9. Knowledge: This is such a cliched area that what knowledge managers does for the enterprise as of now, need to be relooked. It is about ignorance realization. The more you know, more you know how less you know, is the vicious circle of knowledge. Knowledge should be based on Continuous Ignorance Exploration.

GIXBang World – Emergence of Co-Creationization

The Emergence of a New World – Co-Creationization
In August 2005, I was sitting in a group meeting with a Professor from one of the Ivy League Business Schools. In Bangalore, India, it is not every day one get to sit and work with the elite business gurus. I mentioned as a casual remark, that may be to understand and solve business problems using Information Technology (IT), we need to involve our clients in brainstorming. There was a loud No from the Professor. His logic- the customer will color the perception in the brainstorming session with what the customer already has faced and hence will reduce the brainstorming to non-optimal interaction.
Everybody in the room rejected the idea as soon as he said No. This is nothing new for me, as I am used to the usual reaction to anything different that will come up in discussions. We relish the process of nipping the idea in bud! We all wear the De Bono’s black hats – judge before it emerges. The stillborn output of dead brainstorming sessions, we all have seen, participated, and have done nothing about it – it is remarkable we keep on doing same meetings, in same way with same output. The Brainholes that our brainstorming sessions typically reduce to, indicate that we need different tools, techniques and methodologies with some structure to improve the efficacy of our Brainstorming sessions. “We” encompass – all organized human enterprises where problem solving is the core competence. This can be a software development project, a management problem, a research question, design of a new product, movie or advertisement, a manufacturing problem, a process improvement problem, a market expansion problem, a funds allocation problem, and so on. These issues are independent of any type of organization. Even in our family meetings we can observe the output of collective problem solving – typically driven and controlled by the head of the family.So back in August 2005, as soon as the Professor said no, and the body language of each one of the members in the room indicated my foolishness in creating this uncalled for perturbation, I knew that’s the way it has to be. An ability to work with our customers in a brainstorming session may be for half a day workshop is what we all really need. If done properly, one can get to the core of the issues with lot of solution directions thrown in by both sides. The amount of rework, labor burn, heart burn and dollar burn our current approaches lead to can be cut down to zero in a half day brainstorming session with our customers.Before the release of a recent Bollywood movie, the director giving an interview on the Television told that the movie has been shown to “interest groups” chosen from the target audiences of the movie. Further, some of their feedback, comments and suggestions have been taken up to change the movie. If we extend the trend - the director, writer and producer could have brainstormed with the group much before the movie started. The concepts of various story ideas could have been discussed with potential viewers and they could have been part of the process from the beginning. Better still, there could have been partial brainstorms, feedbacks and discussion sessions during the movie making so as to adapt the movie as per the inputs. This is the age of co-creation. The dawn of the age may be signified when “interactive movie production” becomes the new reality. This is after “interactive TV” and “interactive story writing” on the Internet is becoming a reality. The individual in the new world demands continuous involvement in the co-creation. The new world demands, defines and develops new ways. These are not the bland ways of making the world flat – it is really about thriving in the melting pots of creative juices. Evolving the interactions, connections, the networks, and the chaos into rapidly moving and changing structures where the value is not in any fixed static structure or organization. The value lies in the dynamic of the structure. The new thriving, creative and ever evolving world demands new ways to capture value and create value.Are we ready to Co-Create continuously!!!

Value Creation in the GIX Bang World

We are living in a rapidly globalizing world. In this shifting world, rules of the game can change anytime; success will come to those who adapt quickly to the new rules. This new world has been defined by Thomas L. Freedman [“Lexus and Olive Tree”] in contrast to the earlier era as, “While the defining measurement of cold war was weight – particularly the throw weight of missiles – the defining measurement of the globalization system is speed – speed of commerce, travel, communication and INNOVATION”. How fast you innovate and adapt to the globalization is the recipe for success.
As is common understanding, the best way to adapt to the new rules is to write these rules. In these highly competitive times, with extreme uncertainties and time compressions, it is the successful exploitation of ideas, i.e., Innovation, which can be the only competitive advantage. New ideas can come from -- other industries, your competitors, your employees or your customers.
With the plethora of ideas available it is essential that the organizations need to choose the right and relevant ideas to pursue in their quest for competitive advantage. This involves choice, hence decision-making. One of the greatest challenges of human decision-making methodologies has been to help the homo-sapiens in choosing the right path out of many alternatives under the conditions of partial, incorrect and stochastic information about the future. To pursue a particular idea (especially a new technological idea) with unknown returns on investment is becoming one of the most risky decision making problem in the new world.
This brings to the third leg of puzzle, the compleXity (X) of the world. Number of alternatives, time pressure, need for analysis, information de-coherence, connections and networks are increasing at an unprecedented rate. However, human mind has a limitation as discovered of being able to process information within 5 to 9 things as discovered by George A. Miller (1956) and described in the landmark paper Magical Number Seven plus minus two (http://psychclassics.yorku.ca/Miller/). Further there is a fundamental issue of framing the right problem before solving the problems; this is leading to an increasing depreciation of confidence of human beings on their minds. The result is the rapid explosion of complexity. The connections create value but dependencies create complexity, future is approaching us faster than history is leaving us, there is an increasing distance between user requirements of what they really need versus what they claim they want, and with every choice we make today we kill many possible futures.

Globalization, Innovation and complexity (GIX) are increasing simultaneously. This rapid acceleration - I call this the GIX Bang - on the lines of Big Bang. The GIX Bang is happening due to the three inherently coupled trends of increasing globalization, increasing complexity and increasing Innovation. However, these three are so deeply knotted with each other that one can’t have a model of GIX Bang. A mathematical model of GIX bang will involve coupled non-linear equations of rates of change of Globalization (G), Complexity (X) and Innovation (I). Of course, I am not proposing to create that model here. However let us look at the parameters that are impacting these three trends
G is impacted by connections (new ways of technological connectivity across the world), Value (economic, social, military, political, technological, human) across the globe that the connections are enabling, Global real time awareness that creates Ideas to increase globalization, Have-nots of the globalizing world are creating various barriers for controlling these connections which impact globalization adversely.
X is increasing due to dependencies which are global, in multiple dimensions, and much deeper with multiple feedbacks that can create pockets of chaos and pockets of order in the world which leads to more and more of possibility of new - the emergence phenomenon that we all know of.
I is the by product - the G and X interactions demand and will lead to more Innovations - it is the only way for all of us. Innovation feed on and feeds globalization; similarly Innovation reduces complexity and may be constrained by Complexity.
The question that becomes imperative is, “How to create Wealth and Value in the GIX Bang world”?

Interaction and Size Complexity

We know there are two types of System Complexities that typically we look at

1. SYSTEM SIZE COMPLEXITY
2. SYSTEM INTERACTIONS COMPLEXITY

AND.....

INTERACTION COMPLEXITY IS MORE DAMAGING THAN SYSTEM SIZE COMPLEXITY!

Scale Up is not just an aggregation

Companies the small ones who aspire to be big by doing more of the same think that what worked for them at current size and scale will work at larger scale and size as well.

Well all of them are typically in for multiple surprises. The Scale creates its own complexity and aggregation does not make a system with same methods. It is not about combining elemantary particles into molecules and molecules and bigger structures - At each level new laws emerge and are needed to maintain and sustain the structure.

As we know now MORE IS DIFFERENT !!!!!!!

Mutation is not so random afterall

Mutation it seems is not so random. There seems to be an evidence of well-coordinated effort to make possible the emergence of complex organs. The article here talks about a research report.

It talks about a term called pleiotropy defined as, "The phenomenon wherein mutation in a single gene can have effects on multiple traits is known as pleiotropy."

A conclusion of sorts from the author believes pleitropy is not random - it is well-coordinated. "Similarly, it appears that tuning up a complex trait in a living organism is well coordinated and the effects of pleiotropy are more focused than we thought."

If mutations are not so random - but coordinated, who and how they get coordinated.

I really need to understand - is there a possibility of uncaused emergence?

Globalizing Innovation CompleXity

Was just tracking three trends (using Google trends)

1. Globalization



2. Innovation



3. Complexity



4. Lets see the three trends together (GIX - Globalizing Innovation Complexity)


What can we see - Innovation is way heavy in Google...

I think with Innovation is needed to - Increase Globalization and Take care of complexity - hence people are trying to get answers from GOOGLE on how to Innovate!

Complexity Rising - Markets in the GIXBang World

The first market crash after the word Globalization became a commodity is clear indication of how complex the world that we have has become. The Yale article on Globalization and Markets makes the point.

Complicated new financial tools outpaced the comprehension of regulators, bankers or customers

This is the danger of Complexity in GIXBang world. When Globalization is the focus - complexity increases without warning and it engulfs the world in dimensions not even comprehensible.

How to design globalization taking care of complexity is what Innovation should be focussing on - therein lies the play - the globalization, complexity and innovation as three pronged world dimensions need to be taken care of!!

Complexity in the GIXBang world

Just revisited some of my presentations and come out with the following points
RAPID EXPLOSION IN COMPLEXITY

What are the things Increasing
Number of alternatives
Time pressure
Need for analysis
Information de-coherence
Connections
Networks

What is going down or constrained

Human Processing Limits (The Magic Number 7 ± 2)
Framing Limits
Confidence

The trends and observations

§Connections create Value and Dependencies create complexity
§ Future is approaching us Faster than History is leaving us!
§ Increasing distance between user requirements of what they really need versus what they want.
§With every choice we make today we Kill many possible futures

So what ...

MAKE YOUR ENTERPRISE SELF-ORGANIZING BY DESIGNING TIPPING POINTS ....

The New Sciences - Books that layman should read

The last two decades have suddenly changed the view of Science itself. It is not perfect geometries, perfect linear artificial objects, unidimensional man-made static world of artificial objects, but the really messy, uncertain, undeterministic, sochastic, non-linear, curvy, continuously evolving world that New Science is trying to understand - through modeling the non-linearity in dynamic computer models of reality.

Chaos theory rooted in physics and chemistry tells us why Uncertainty is the new reality. Bringing the Hiesenberg Undertainty Principle to the center of this science. Chaos is what we should be aware of - with its unseen abilities to create futures that are indetermistic - a small variation in initial conditions of a system can lead to diametrically opposite behaviours or more interestingly unknow behaviour of the system in future.

Complexity Theory rooted in Biology tells us, what are the possibilities in such a complex. How the complex system works and evolves.

Well, if you are interested - and mind you, you have to study the new science -as in schools they are not teaching it so far (oh what a pity!!!) - Please go through some of the books that may help you make sense (with as less maths as possible) (the order of the list below is random- you can start reading from any book) -


Complexity: Life at the Edge of Chaos
Chaos: Making a New Science
Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Software
Emergence: From Chaos to Order
Sync: The Emerging Science of Spontaneous Order
Order Out of Chaos
A New Kind of Science
Investigations
The Fractal Geometry of Nature
Genetic Algorithms in Search, Optimization, and Machine Learning
Ant Colony Optimization
An Introduction to General Systems Thinking
The Emotion Machine: Commonsense Thinking, Artificial Intelligence, and the Future of the Human Mind
Cybernetics, Second Edition: or the Control and Communication in the Animal and the Machine
Godel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid
Metamagical Themas: Questing for the Essence of Mind and Pattern
The Hidden Connections: A Science for Sustainable Living


In the above list I am missing out many books of great authors, Nevertheless, this is a good sample to cover the New Science from multiple perspectives... Will add more to the list.. may be in the next post... Enjoy and Thrive in the New Science!!!!