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Tuesday, March 29, 2016

Event: TRIZ Trends 2016 - at GE John F. Welch Technology Center, Bangalore, INDIA, Tuesday – April 12, 2016.

Dear All,
Please find attached an announcement on a one day summit called TRIZ-Trends 2016 at GE John F. Welch Technology Center, Bangalore, INDIA, Tuesday – April 12, 2016.
The first such summit was held in 2014 and this one provides a platform to learn, share, and network.
It is indeed a great initiative by GE.
Crafitti is happy to participate in this summit.

If you can make it kindly register quickly. Registration is FREE however seats are limited and time is by 31st March.

Kindly register early if you are in Bangalore on that day.   KINDLY FORWARD THIS TO YOUR CONTACTS WHO MAY BE INTERESTED.

"Participation & Registration : Participation is open to Engineers, Scientists, Academicians, Researchers and others interested in practicing and applying TRIZ for Innovation in their respective disciplines on a first-come-first-serve basis limited to a maximum of 50 participants. Preference will be given to those who have a background in TRIZ through formal or informal learning / training / certification.
REGISTRATION IS FREE BUT MANDATORY.

To Register please send an email to mt.shyamsunder@ge.com with subject as “TRIZ-TRENDS 2016 Registration” and provide details of Name, Designation, Organization, City, Email ID, Phone and TRIZ relevant certification and experience.
LAST DATE TO REGISTER : March 31, 2016

LOOK FORWARD TO MEETING YOU AT GE Bangalore on 12th April 2016.

Monday, March 21, 2016

Awareness - A Poem

AWARENESS 

Science is concerned with decoding the universe

Religion is concerned with encoding the universe 

Philosophy is concerned with explaining the universe 

Mind is concerned with playing the universe 

Consciousness is concerned with witnessing the universe 

Awareness, however, is ~ Just is ! 

 

Friday, March 18, 2016

Inventing in an Expanding Frontier of Ignorance - Extended Abstract



Inventing in an Expanding Frontier of Ignorance –
TRIZ for Information-era Artificial Intelligence and Systems with a Mind

Extended Abstract
Chances are remote that when Feynman was delivering his famous lectures on physics in 1962 and wrote we do not yet know all the basic laws: there is an expanding frontier of ignorance in USA, he would have heard of Altshuller, the Soviet prisoner released after Stalin’s death from Siberian confinement, who was discovering the laws of evolution of technical systems through painstaking analysis of thousands of patents which was to result in the Theory of inventive problem solving (TRIZ in Russian parlance). It is indeed the peculiar fate of our world that multiple directions are taken for exploration and development in decoupled social, political and cultural systems – as USA and USSR were after World War II – yet the key to “knowing” or creating “new knowledge” continues to be an evolutionary approach – rather than design, direction and planning. 

Feynman describes that although the sole judge of scientific truth is experiment giving us hints to the laws underlying our world, yet imagination is needed to “create from these hints the great generalizations – to guess and then to experiment to check again whether we have made the right guess.” He further states that laws of nature are approximate and, “… at each stage it is worth learning what is not known, how accurate it is, how it fits into everything else and how it may be changed when we learn more” [1]. This is indeed the process of continuous learning and understanding through an evolutionary process.  However, despite its discovery by Darwin, 150 years back, acceptance of evolution by natural selection as a possible model of explanation of progress of cosmos is relatively a recent phenomenon [2]. As Ridley states in [3], “the way the human history is taught can therefore mislead, because it places far too much emphasis on design, direction and planning, and far too little on evolution”. He further states that, “… to see past the illusion of design, to see the emergent, unplanned, inexorable and beautiful process of change that lies underneath”.

One of the earlier recognition of evolution due to ingenuity of human mind reflected in the successful inventions described in patents and technological knowledge was discovered and explained by the Theory of Inventive Problem Solving (TRIZ). This resulted in discovery of laws of evolution of technical systems which became the basis of classical TRIZ. As per Altshuller the purpose of evolution of technical systems was to achieve the “Ideal system”. Technical systems exist or are created to perform a function. The ideal technical system describes the fulfillment of the function with reduction in number of the elements of technical system that actuates the function. TRIZ and its laws of evolution of technical systems discovered in the era of physical systems – the era of machines – explained the fulfillment of function in an ideal way. The algorithm of achieving ideality was to avoid the costly “trial and error” approaches of evolution – small local changes in multiple copies of the same system which get reflected in the “subsequent generations of system”. TRIZ proposed to jump the costly “trial and error” and focused on ideality and jump many avoidable generations of unnecessary random stages.



Three Eras – Machine, Information, and Mind
From the era of machines – dominated by automobile – which incidentally became the model for classical TRIZ – we are rapidly moving in the era of information. Our understanding of “information” – its nature and its deeper manifestations – is increasing day by day. When we started investigating the applicability of laws of system evolution as described by TRIZ in the current era of information, we realized that TRIZ, understandably missed the key ingredient, i.e., information, embedded in modern technical systems and environment in which these technical systems will be operating.

We discovered that human beings by collectively evolving their technical systems, are trying to make each technical system as close to a human being as possible – or at least a model of human being and its environment based on the current understanding of the world (for example, understanding of laws of physics and chemistry in making an automobile) and the current understanding of the system called the human being. As man understands the world around it as well as its body and its mind, it wants to create an “ideal man” or at least an idealized human of all technical systems it is creating. This is an unexpected discovery and may take the readers used to classical TRIZ, sometime to accept it [4].
Increasing Intelligence of Technical Systems

Given our understanding of the current information era and how technical systems are evolving from their predominantly physical characteristics into information enriched technical systems, we propose in this paper a new law – the law of increasing intelligence of technical systems.

We are in the era of information today. This is an era that has replaced the era of machines that started with industrial revolution. This era of information is giving us systems that are becoming increasingly intelligent. From the dumb systems that were responding to inputs to perform specific functions, we have evolved to guided systems and smart systems of the information era. The next stage of evolution of technical systems is increasingly becoming clear as we are seeing emergence of brilliant systems which we predict will become genius systems. By 2050 AD, the world will have technical systems with more intelligence than biological intelligence – predicted as the Singularity. From information era we are now entering rapidly into the era of mind. This we call as law of increasing intelligence of technical systems.
In the current Information Era, TRIZ needs to update its definition of a technical system to include “information”. The goal of system evolution should be to create ideal systems that attain perfect information to actualize the underlying system functions.

In the emerging era of Mind, TRIZ should be about ideas and thoughts. How can any technical system process and actuate ideas? The ideal technical system will be able to generate and actuate perfect ideas to attain system functions needed in real time or even ahead of time.

Lines of System Intelligence

In the era of information and coming era of mind of technical systems we have proposed a new law of evolution of technical systems using TRIZ way of exploration and creating new knowledge. We call this the Law of Increasing Intelligence of Technical systems. We further propose that TRIZ should incorporate this new law to the existing laws of evolution of technical systems as the current information era and future mind era of technical systems will require new ways and concepts to invent systems that will have more information and in future will have the fourth fundamental we call the mind as their most prominent components.

In the talk we will explain the Lines of system intelligence under the law of increasing intelligence of technical systems that we have uncovered in our exploration so far. These are lines for –

(a) Increasing levels of sensing and detecting,
(b) Increasing levels of processing data, information and knowledge,
(c) Increasing levels of Learning,
(d) Increasing levels of choice –making,
(e) Increasing levels of concept-creation,
(f) Increasing levels of uncertainty, randomness and vagueness



Final Point:

The Artificial Intelligence(AI) and Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI) debate going on in the world today misses out on one key point on “intelligence” – the intelligence need not be “conscious” or “aware”. Non-consciousness intelligence is what we are calling artificial intelligence and that perhaps will continue in the near future and may exceed biological intelligence as per “singularity” by 2045-2055. However, the “artificial consciousness” really has no clarity – unless we claim the cloning of human beings to be the creation of artificial consciousness.

References
[1] The Feynman Lectures on Physics
[2] Steven J. Dick and Mark L. Lupisella (Ed.), Cosmos & Culture – Cultural Evolution in a Cosmic Context, NASA report number, NASA SP-2009-4802, 2009.
[3] Ridley M., The Evolution of Everything – How New Ideas Emerge, Harper Collins, London, 2015.
[4] Bhushan, N., Law of increasing Intelligence of Technical Systems, accessed on 18th March 2016 http://aitriz.org/triz-articles/inside-triz/596-law-of-increasing-intelligence-of-technical-systems
 

Wednesday, March 09, 2016

Threat Modeling and Assessment for Low Intensity Conflict



A war, statistically speaking, is a rare event. It is also an exceedingly costly and disruptive form of interaction between people and states. A war indicates that level of bilateral relationship between two states, which exists from the time first mobilization of troops, is called for against the other side till peace is reached. This view of war implying only active armed conflict however is a restrictive definition. Here it is assumed that war/conflict is in operation, from the moment a state decides upon a policy of armed resistance or inclination to counter an external/ internal threat with military ramifications, to the time the solution of the active threat is achieved or it is made dormant.  Modern day wars have been defined at three levels of increasing intensity though not necessarily increasing complexity and duration (See Fig. 1). At the first level is the most prevalent form of warfare, i.e., Low Intensity Conflict (LIC). The LIC is defined as a conflict between irregular forces, mercenaries, revolutionaries, terrorists, etc., and the regular, conventional armed forces of a nation. The biggest challenge facing the conventionally armed forces of a nation, which are trained and equipped for fighting against the conventionally armed forces of the enemy, is to deal with LIC. The Mid Intensity Conflict (MIC) is the conventional warfare that is indoctrinated in the regular armed forces of the world. With the advent of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs), the chances of High Intensity Conflict (HIC), which is defined as a conflict involving WMDs, are increasing. As is evident from Fig 1 the probability of occurrence of a LIC is high and also the duration of such conflicts is more. This is due to the fact that LIC is a continuous process, which the armed forces all over the world have found hard to contain. The probability of WMD based HIC is low compared to LIC/MIC. However, a threat which this spectrum misses out is the possibility that, WMDs may fall in the hands of irregulars engaged in an LIC. This will bring the conflict to HIC levels, where the nation fighting the insurgents or irregulars will suffer. Therefore, the armed forces of a modern nation need equipment, force structure and doctrine to deal with threats at all three levels of intensity. Threat assessment is a major pre-requisite in all three conflict levels.



Monday, March 07, 2016

10 Books from 1980s that influenced me as a school and college student

In 2012 I posted 10 books that have influenced me Here
The list included "I am that", Sciences of the Artificial" and "Rise and Fall of Great Powers".

Below I post 10 books that I read in 1980s as a school and college student. Since I started working in 1990, the 1980s are my formal student years. So here is the list (remember in 1980s I have not heard of Internet and world wide web was not born).

1. The Tao of Physics 

 In 1980s I was getting exposed to Physics - modern physics - relativity and even quantum physics. I preferred to study Physics (Hons.) in my BSc. at Delhi University. Besides the focused study of physics - The Tao of physics came as a fresh unification of so called eastern mysticism and modern physics. It was some sort of my initial exposure to connected-ness of all - everything and everyone.

In class X I asked myself "Why am I?" - I was told the better question to ask is "What am I?". The answer or at least the guidance to explore these two questions came from Tao of Physics - my answer was "I exist to find out why do I exist?".






2. 1984 


George Orwell shook me. It was so much more about a world free from freedom that what exactly is freedom became my life long quest to explore. How many times we have used "thought police" "bug brother is watching you" and "thought crime" - since then is really a marvel of how clear was Orwellian future. As a college student this book was disturbing. In Delhi 1984 the movie starring Richard Burton and John Hunt - was running. I saw the movie in the hall and because of the book the movie had much deeper impact.

Even today, 1984 and Orwell's "Animal Farm" are so relevant.





3. Fountainhead

 For a long time I thought Ayn Rand was a male. The book "Fountainhead" - a thick volume had a huge huge impact on me as a student. Howard Roark - the architect the hero became my dream icon. I read Ayn Rand's "Atlas Shrugged" much later, although she wrote it earlier. Its Fountainhead that shaped me to explore whatever I want - an ode to what she says "individualism". Surprisingly in 1980s Delhi, India was more about "socialism".

Fountainhead and 1984 gave the picture of too much socialism and communism!






4. Order out of Chaos

 Ilya Prigogine's classic book - He was a Nobel Prize winner - I could not comprehend. But in 1980s it gave me my first inputs on Chaos and chaos theory - as it was emerging. The Non-linearity in mathematics was becoming mainstream. The question it raised in me - was to look at Nature and Artificial with new lens - the Nature is non-linear, fractal and creates order out of seemingly chaotic situations. The Man tries to make it linear, design things and objects which are based on linear thinking.

The reality, the natural, the emergence of new or different is really a sudden "phase change" that is not a linear extrapolation of past or simple admixture of constituent parts. Indeed more I delved in Chaos theory more I realized its power. However, this was the book that made me orient towards Chaos, Non-linearity and even my interests in Artificial Intelligence.


5. The Fourth Round  - 1984

 I found this book at the Sunday Book Bazaar at Daryaganj, Delhi in 1984. I read it after India's Prime Minister Indira Gandhi was assassinated. However, my interest in all things defence and defence analysis was kindled after 1982's when Indian Air Force celebrated in 50th anniversary. I devoured this book. The military balance, deployment of troops in various military sectors and painting war scenarios - from a hobby became my passion. Ravi Rikhey's book was a start of my journey into combat analysis and then combat modeling during my DRDO days in 1990s.

This book is a a treasure that I cherish even today.




6. The Bourne Identity

Robert Ludlum's novel was one of the many that I read in 1980s - starting from James Hadley Chase - throwaway novels - to Harold Robbins, Sidney Sheldon and Ludlum was a voyage. I was reading these novels in my college days like one per week perhaps.

Of all - Jason Bourne remains in my mind. The character and characterization of a Spy who lost his memory and how he regains and lives his life was fascinating. The subsequent books on Bourne series also I read.

I think it was a life long love with Jason Bourne that I have developed. The movies I saw on TV recently, meaning 2010's and somehow the novels remain much better and still live inside.



7. Guns of Navarone

 Guns of Navarone remains my most favorite second world war novel. Although I have read most of Maclean - e.g., where eagles dare, the Guns of Navorone remains a classic for me.

Once again I saw the movie much later - and Gregory Peck  became  my hero. But the novel in my opinion was better than the movie. The romance angle in the movie was perhaps introduced to make it more acceptable or for sales - in the novel there was no female spy.

Nevertheless the acting was flawless. However, the novel was one that I read more than one time.






8. Foundaion Series 

 Surprisingly I was not too much into Science fiction in 1980s and even now. But Issac Asimov's Foundation series I relished and yes it gave me pictures of the Universe - space and time in some way that have influenced me tremendously.

Can there be mathematical predictability of future - long term future? I guess my interest in future scenarios and futures research lies in the seeds that Foundation's "Heri Seldon" sowed in my mind in 1980s.








9. Future Shock

 I read this in late 1980s - I think during my Master of Science ( computer science). This book made me Toffler's life-long fan. I read all his books - Powershift, Third wave, war and anti war and recently revolutionary wealth - because of Futue shock. It was an impact of change on individual and society that future shock highlighted.

My Futures research and interest in scenario planning started from this. It had so much impact that I continue to remain in future even now :).










10. How to Study

This book may look odd to the reader in this list. It was written in 1917. I found a copy of this book in my father's books. I lost my father in 1981. He had large number of books on astrology and numerology and this one was also there.

I read it as a curiosity initially. But I must say this old book gave me a new interest on how to study and a message - its the joy of learning and mastering subjects through sheer systematic embedding that one learns not by working for passing exams.

The lesson remained with me - as I never got high marks :). However, the joy of learning and exploring systematic ways of learning, new ways of learning and studying has become a wonderful interest for me.





It will be interesting to hear which books in your school/college still remains with you and how it helped you in life. My 10 books from my student days indeed have shaped me and my thinking to a great extent. 

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