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Wednesday, November 05, 2014

Inventing Strategies using Crisis Gaming

Sunday, November 02, 2014

Indo-China Strategic Analysis - Blueprint for Indian security - emerging from my writings

One of the most fascinating arena of study for me has been the changes in India, China, their interactions and impact on the world. Given my interest in Military and Geo-politics especially study of conflict, it has been fascinating to study the dragon and the elephant (or now the Lion, if one may). Below, I am just collating my articles and columns on the India China evolution. 

Last year I gave a talk on Strategic Analysis in Chaotic times. The talk presentation slides can be accessed at the blogpost 
It gives the impact of China plan (Deng's reforms and blueprint in 1978) and design of a new type of superpower. The whitepaper released in 2013 on Chinese Military by China explained it should have "Armed forces commensurate with China's International standing" in a world of increasing economic globalization, multi-polarity, cultural diversity and emergence of information society. I proposed comprehesnive integrated warfare as the new doctrinal shift India need to operate in the environment of multiple threats.

What can China do in future? A scenario of distinct possibility. China captures Pakistan

To become a robust nation, perhaps India need to learn from China and US, however, it has to evolve its own path as I wrote couple of years back. 

India has to penetrate the smokescreens created by both USA and China.  reaching to their deepest long term interests and intentions.
 
Recently, In "Great fall of China, Consequences for India " I wrote

"China has become used to continuous rapid growth for last two decades or so. If and when the growth gets impacted adversely or dented, Dragon may become more assertive and militarily active. A recent Rand Research Brief provides three potential Asian futures (a) Systemic Continuity – China continues to be cooperative but more assertive (b) Hegemonic China and (c) Systemic Breakdown. The report further states that current situation points more in between the first two futures. However, one should explore the possibility of a breakdown where “Asian governments must secure popular support by offering something other than rising prosperity.”From India’s point of view all three futures are fraught with increasing danger.

Why India need to create and how it can create a long term doctrinal shift through comprehensive integrated warfare doctrine. 

1. The airpower is changing dynamically and we have different type of air power getting created - unmanned, intelligent, stealthy, hypersonic and conventional prompt global strike world.  

2. India will need a new ministry of foresight and intelligence. A proposal here
What will the ministry do? It will carry out seminar games and create crisis stability responses such as
Crimea 
and crisis gaming Iran-Israel war, for example.

3. India will have to think in mission mode and "on its own" - it needs to get angry enough.
This can be achieved by learning through its successful organizations and failed projects. For example how ISRO achieves success.

Instead of going to Foreign Vendors quickly, India seriously need to think through its options at home. For example, do we really need MMRCA?

4.  How to counter China should be of paramount importance. Countering may including collaborating and competing simultaneously. In fact, mountain strike corps and associated capabilities really need to be thought through. For example one can have a look at the Striking China The Mountain Strike Corps need to be designed in an innovative manner 
It will require a new Air-Mountain Warfare Doctrine to be created.

5. India need a maritime doctrine for a declining US rising China world. The doctrine has to build a sea-denial component especially in the new age of lethality where Manned Aircraft Carriers may be more vulnerable.

6. India need to seriously design the next "revolution in military affairs". Predominantly software based and software intensive, India has the potential.

7. India need to build a system or system of systems to make itself disaster proof. 

8. Our soldiers need to be prepared for the 7-Dimensional Wars of the future. A tall task indeed. 

9. A very serious threat of the 7D wars are the Cyber warfare. This is going to be the gravest challenge for India - cyber security.

10. A comprehensive study of Comprehensive integrated warfare needs is required. For example what are the Network centric warfare architectural options for India.
A strategic command and control network design has to be explored and evolved for the Indian strategic forces.In effect, India should learn and build its own Network Centric Warfare Doctrine - a challenge today.



11.  Integrating the C2 network with Indian missiles and delivery systems in a robust system that can survive the first strike is the key. MIRVed ICBMs are crucial for such a system. It is not MAD but Non First Use requires MIRVed ICBMs - Agni-5 is in right direction.

12. Basic military doctrine for 7D wars have to be written and created. A proposal in the 3 parts article Here.   (a longish article - perhaps need to be written as a mongraph)

13. Operating in the Globalizing Innovation Complexity (The GIXBang world) India need to respond, evolve and design a world with gives it secured-assured-progressive-development




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