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Tuesday, April 24, 2012

India, China and USA - Surviving Versus Desiging the Change Models

Wall Street Journal has this article on How India is shrewd enough to see US and China Smokescreens. The Article attributes this shrewdness to India on the basis of recent test of India's first ICBM - Agni-V. For my view on Agni-V and India's nuclear capability see my article at Frontier India - Agni-5 is not MAD

My view on the WSJ article

Indeed its the actions on ground that should be taken as input to formulating long-term responses. However, attributing shrewdness to largest democracy in the world on this is giving little bit too much credit to Indian policy makers and executives. Amazingly, Indian government continues to be reactive on all fronts - this is more so in security and defence than in other dimensions. 

After Deng's reforms in 1978, China created a longterm vision of economic development focus till 2000 including assimilation of HongKong, and now they are in the Military capability phase of becoming a superpower. They are well on their way, and that's great planning and amazing focus on the plan for so many decades. 

India is a Nation of Variety
In India, we do not have, as a nation a clarity on what constitutes world power, and also the very nature of Indian democracy and to a great extent social and intellectual fabric of the country, is built on assimilation of variety - its amazing that such large country builds and keeps on creating so much variety in its systems and people. Multiple plans and initiatives of the Government in multiple dimensions on the basis of specific keyholes that they may have, is just a reflection of India as a nation of variety. 

So, if a particular response survives the mess and becomes a capability - such as Agni-V - it will be foolhardy to attribute it to a shrewd response. I would like to state it to be a response of a nation who is reactive and may be more adaptive to changes and hence has a greater chances of survival rather than a nation who design change in the world with the purpose of controlling the world - for example, US policy of "shaping the world" and Chinese objective of becoming a superpower - militarily - by 2020. 

Algorithm for a Nation
India, on the other hand, has been just wriggling in this time of strategic history - and to some extent may be more appropriate as a nation to survive in the world of rapid change. However, I hope, Indian can learn from China and US to start designing change in the world as well - rather than adapting to change. As US is learning now and China will be forced to learn in a decade or so - the best way of course is to have largely an adaptive algorithm for the nation as somehow India has. But India need to structure the adaptive algorithm with a design algorithm to also create the change - that's what India should learn from declining US and rising China!


Penetrating US and China Smokescreens – Algorithm for India

Saturday, April 21, 2012

Arsenal Ship and Mobile Offshore Bases - for Indian Navy

In mid 1990s US Navy and Darpa proposed the concept of an Arsenal Ship - a low cost, high firepower, low contingent, a ship with 500 Missile launchers - is a great concept - rejected by the Carrier and big battle ship lobby in US, for smaller navy for taking care of large ocean space - it is best for Indian Navy -
Mobile Offshore Base - is some sort of a modular aircraft carrier - once again proposed by US Navy - not deployed 
 Indian Navy should seriously think about Arsenal ships and MOBs for building its capabilities - especially with Brahmos Missiles and other missile capabilities -

Monday, April 16, 2012

Indian Military Doctrine for 21st Century 7D Wars

Indian Military Doctrine India has built its military on borrowed ideas, doctrines and most importantly arms. The country however, faces unique security environment and threats that in the 6th decade of Independence from British should have created a military doctrine and force structure of its own. Given the increasing influence that India is positioning itself in world economy, it is but a matter of time that today's largest arms importing country has to rethink about its military structure and doctrine. What should be an Indian military doctrine for 21st Century? This 3 Parts article being published at Frontier India proposes an Indian Military  doctrine for the 7 Dimensional Wars - Please Read Part1 HERE
Wait for Part 2 and Part 3

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