Digital Transformation

 

DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION – Core of Industry 4.0?

INDUSTRY 4.0

Digital Transformation phrase has historical connection with Industry 4.0 coined in the year 2006, when Cyber Physical Systems started emerging from the research discussions to manufacturing sector. That also led to a call to Digitize the Manufacturing Sector.

 In the year 2006, Germany declared the move towards Industry 4.0. It was the advent of radically different technologies - distinct from the previous three Industrial eras. The Industry 4.0 was considered to be driven by the Cyber physical systems. Contrast this to Industry 1.0 – start of the industrial revolution of using water/steam powered production; Industry 2.0 of mass production and use of electricity at the start of 20^th Century; and automation through computers in Industry 3.0 in 1970s. The Cyber Physical Systems (CPS) consists of interoperable and integrated Internet of things, computation, networking, and physical processes that cooperate with each other and with human beings in real time. 9 key technologies underlie CPS - Autonomous Robots, Big Data, Augmented Reality (AR), Additive manufacturing (3D printing), Cloud Computing, Cyber Security, Internet of Things (IOT), System Integration and Simulation. The call to Digitize the Manufacturing Sector started emerging, soon after. Digital Factories was the result - to use, adapt and adopt the industry 4.0 technologies to carry out existing factory functions per se. In further evolution of the terms – Digitize also expanded to Digitalize the processes.

To Digitize means creating a digital representation of physical objects. There is a “transformation” of physical objects into data. The physical object itself doesn’t get changed through this process. The aspects and information contained in the physical object or relevant to its identity and understanding, gets converted to data when it is digitized. The Digitalization was defined to reflect the transformation or enablement of a business process using digital data and digital technologies (for example, process for booking an airline ticket). The process is automated with no or minimum human intervention when it is digitalized. In a way it is changed or transformed to its digital version as conceived by the process-designer within the constraints of existing technologies and digital data that may be representing the physical objects in their digitized avatars. 

Although Digital Transformation has its roots in Industry 4.0, it is being applied to all kinds of businesses and organization. It indeed has become a buzz word since 2014. A generic tongue-in-cheek view of the term Digital Transformation is - continuously changing your business through emerging technologies. On success in some dimension, one can claim and call that the entity is “transformed” to be "the Digital" that “we always intended it to be”. And if new technology emerges again - one starts the journey again.

TRANSFORMATION, REPLACEMENT and EVOLUTION Replacing something is easier than transforming it. To transform an entity, one needs to keep its identity same yet change some part of its structure or enhance its structure by additions or deletions to its anatomy yet make sure that it is not destroyed, not loses its erstwhile identity. Replacement implies changing the older with the newer. Ideally, a digital factory could be designed and developed as a stand alone digitized and digitalized model of the existing unit and once the digital system is working one can discard the old purely physical factory.

Modelling and Simulation is one of the established methods to study any system for the purpose of evaluating its performance and also studying changes to the system. Over the years, simulation techniques have improved and now become close to replicating the physical systems and dynamics in models of sufficient details. There is an emerging paradigm of “digital-twins” as a means to move towards “digital transformation”. Evolution implies changing by replacement and/or through modification of certain internal sub-structures or the way these structures are organized to perform a specific set of functions. From the above, the replacement or big-bang one-shot transformation may happen, though rarely.

Three - Zations of Chinese Military In the 1950’s Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) proposed Mechanization as its “transformation strategy”. In 1990s, a new transformation term “informationization” of PLA was declared in the software driven 5th wave of innovation. Recently, PLA announced that “mechanization” has been complete/accomplished. A Transformation initiative started in 1950’s has been accomplished in 2020. Clearly transformation is evolutionary not a big-bang organizational disruption. The clarity of goal-setting is visible in the way PLA decided to call it as informationization. One must see that these two -zations have come to PLA as a follower of western transformation. The third transformation that PLA announced in 2019 - Intelligentization is when China will lead and drive the technologies as well as the transformation. China has announced to accelerate the integrated development of mechanization, informatization, and intelligentization. There is an objective lesson for others to understand from a nation that has been accomplishing long-term strategies in a consistent and persistent manner. Transformation is hard/difficult/destructive BUT Long term clear and unambiguous functional goal-setting and pursuit through evolutionary explorations to find the paths towards the functional goals, continuously transforms in a robust or even anti-fragile (systems that gain strengths from harmful impacts) manner.

Digital Transformation should ideally be called an integrated, evolving and amalgamated movements of three dynamics – Mechanization (energy-matter), information and intelligence. That may not sound as enticing for marketing folks as the dream being sold as Digital Transformation

What is Digital Transformation then … ? It is a vague, marketing term given by “American’ way of salesmanship. It encompasses various proposals to current known ways, existing and emerging technologies, and experiences, to accomplish embedding more “information” and more “intelligence” into the existing systems (both human and mechanical systems) to monitor, exchange, convert and process different operands for which the system exists – matter(objects), energy, value (money), information and upcoming ideas, emotions, beliefs, intentions, thoughts, etc (in no particular order). It is a bit of a misnomer – both from “digital” and “transformation” perspectives. The Chinese articulation as integrated paths towards mechanization, information embedding and making systems intelligent as the three dynamic, evolving and amalgamated movements ahead –seems to be more appropriate. The STEMIL (space-time energy-matter information and life) being Changed (C) through Mind (Thought Consciousness and Power) (TCP) was what I called STEMIL-C-TCP model.

About the Author Navneet Bhushan (Navneet) is the founder-director of Crafitti Consulting. He is the leading expert on innovation and principal author of Strategic Decision Making- Applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process, Springer-Verlag, UK, published as part of the Decision Engineering Series and featured at the Harvard Business School. He consults on strategy, innovation, military/defence and intellectual property. He can be contacted at navneet.bhushan@crafitti.com.

The International Symposium on Management, Education and Information Technology (SMEIT 2018) October 26-28, 2018 in Suzhou, China.

The International Symposium on Management, Education and Information Technology (SMEIT 2018) will be held from October 26-28, 2018 in Suzhou, China. This Conference will cover issues on Management service, Education and Information Technology. It dedicates to creating a stage for exchanging the latest research results and sharing the advanced research methods.

 It is an honor to be part of Programme Committee of this conference.


Please consider submitting your research to this conference in China !

China Takes Pakistan - A Scenario by 2017-2022

Since year 2011 I have been painting a scenario where in China will get deeper and deeper into Pakistan. Its been the case for many decades that China has been the "thick" friend of Pakistan - especially military and exclusively on nuclear and missiles capabilities of Pakistan. Bhutto's Islamic Bomb has many Chinese elements is well-established.

When I wrote the scenario in 2013 January, it was just a struggling Pakistan and the military had just started talking about internal militancy as a major threat. My contention was China will be the biggest threat Pakistan has and the contours of that threat will emerge as the Dragon start holding and engulfing its prey in its rapidly vibrating tongue.

Today we have two specific initiatives that makes the scenario more and more plausible. 

My timeline for Chinese occupation was 2017-2022. But with the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) becoming a major future - to be developed with Chinese Money (please see the article Here) I must say it may happen much before the year 2022 - the Chinese occupation of Pakistan. Well this Occupation will definitely be "friendly". Further there is element of Military in this CPEC. For example an article Here says,

"Like most things in Pakistan, the CPEC (despite its name) is as much about security as it is about economy. These roads can be used for movement of troops and landing of aircraft in the event of a war. Since we are never sure which of our borders is more problematic at any given time, the more the routes, the merrier; also, the further apart they are, the better."

 Second initiative is the Gwadar Port develpment. With Billions of Dollars from China, Gwadar port is a fortress says the NDTV headline.The article states

"Securing the planned $46 billion economic corridor of roads, railways and pipelines from northwest China to Pakistan's Arabian Sea coast is a huge challenge in a country where Islamist militants and separatist gunmen are a constant menace."

The Chinese can not afford to let Pakistan go. Their Silk Road revival plan and the rapidity at which they are executing it is at stake. My article at Indian Defence Review on China's Silk Road initiative can give a view of what is happening.

---------------------------------------------------------

The Scenario was proposed in 2011 - 

Article written in January 2013

 

China Takes Pakistan – A Scenario by 2017-2022

In the long run Pakistan's greatest enemy will prove to be neither India nor internal militancy, it will be China. The recent focus by Pakistan claiming internal militancy to be number one enemy – and a doctrinal shift away from India may be of importance for Pakistan’s internal consumption. However, what may not be clear even to Pakistan army/ISI/Controllers of Pakistan is the fact that it may be prudent for Pakistan to have doctrinal focus on China.

Scenario: Pakistan supported, penetrated and engulfed by China - 2017-2022 timeframe

The process of Chinese support to Pakistan is an ongoing process. Since 2010, China has 11000 soldiers in POK. This is close to 2+ Infantry brigades equivalent strength. Chinese are involved in building the Gwadar port – a very strategic conduit to middle-east and of course to Africa as well. Besides, China has been providing arms and ammunition to Pakistan Military forces for many decades now. Chinese are in. They are considered the thick friends by Pakistani Military.

Key factors making the above scenario likely:

USA is a declining superpower. The Obama win in the Presidential elections might have delayed the demise little bit. In 2017, there will be a new US President. Most likely it will be a republican President. US Forces will leave Af-Pak by 2014 creating a sudden military vacuum. This will be filled by Talibans in the most atrocious manner one can imagine. By 2017, Pakistan military will seek more and more support from China as China already is the largest supplier to Pakistan. China will enter, embed itself and bring-in its strategy of changing the population ratio – as clearly implemented in Tibet, systematically. Pakistanis may start learning Chinese by 2017.

China is pursuing Deng’s reforms of 1978. The Deng reforms very clearly articulate the “superpower” phase that China will has entered since the start of this century. A new type of Superpower is the design. To fulfill the Superpower by 2050 dream, will require secure, fast and wide access to Africa because of its natural resources – untapped. Also, China will need access of markets in other part of world. Karakoram highway is already open to China. China will need to build fast goods trains from Karachi, Gwadar and Pasni to Karakoram. It will also require the land transport to be safe and secure. By 2022 China has to achieve that. Their Superpower design is at stake.

Pakistan is failing if not already a failed state. Living under drones 24x7 has made many Pak-Afghan areas border residents anti-US. The people also may be shifting towards Chinese, thinking of China to be their long-term savior. With Pakistan completely under China, it will be very difficult for India to be of consequence in the new “Chinese world”.  With India curtailed, China will pursue its world dominance economically and otherwise. If Pakistan does not go to China, it is but a matter of few years that Pakistan will be divided into 3 or 4 independent countries. These countries may fight with each other. This will not allow China to access the sea-routes to the world at large. Deng’s algorithm for China does not allow Pakistan to get away from Chinese hands. China is slowly, steadily and systematically getting ready to do a “Tibet” on Pakistan. However, this time, China is pursuing the mission with great patience.

Impact on India

Pakistan was created as “non-India”. Non-India is an identity that Pakistan would like to preserve. However, that identity is in grave danger from multiple dimensions - the greatest dimension being the China’s superpower quest and design. India needs to fight it out in multiple ways. China taking over Pakistan is order of magnitude more dangerous for us compared to Tibet overtaken by China. Today, Hindus from Pakistan are seeking asylum in India. From 2017 onwards, there will be an influx of Pakistanis Muslims - in India – they would be terrorized by Talibans and then controlled by China – hence they would be forced to run away. Indian culture, language and even mannerisms are similar and Pakistanis will be more than happy to be assimilated in India. However, China, having taken up control of Pakistan, will not stop at that. China will start looking at Arunachal Pradesh and eastern parts of India as well. This will be a very dangerous scenario for India.

Options for India

Assimilate Pakistan in India by force – most readers will laugh at this suggestion. However, this thought has been proposed by press council of India’s Chairman, Mr. Katju. I am not sure about his drivers, however, instead of letting China take over Pakistan just like we allowed in Tibet, uniting Pakistan with India is a rather more promising option. However, the “how” to do it, is the key question. Second, do we have sufficient national willpower to execute this.

Should we join US in China containment?  Should we become the new frontline state of US, just like Pakistan became against soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Of course, we may not become, but some element of cooperation with US and rest of the world powers in not letting China get Pak, needs to be carried out. Diplomacy, military power and economic factors need to be analyzed and a holistic response needs to be created.

Do nothing. Let us react to this when it happens. This is a highly unlikely scenario; we will see when it happens. If the reader is from Indian government think tanks, policy makers and executing agencies, I can see their response. However, in this case, waiting for the crisis to happen may not be a correct measure. Remember, India’s very existence may be at stake.

Crisis avoidance is better than disaster management. Crisis leads to disasters. If we can see the crisis, a crisis avoidance blueprint needs to be created and executed. This time disaster will be extremely costly.

India, China and USA - Surviving Versus Desiging the Change Models

Wall Street Journal has this article on How India is shrewd enough to see US and China Smokescreens. The Article attributes this shrewdness to India on the basis of recent test of India's first ICBM - Agni-V. For my view on Agni-V and India's nuclear capability see my article at Frontier India - Agni-5 is not MAD

My view on the WSJ article

Indeed its the actions on ground that should be taken as input to formulating long-term responses. However, attributing shrewdness to largest democracy in the world on this is giving little bit too much credit to Indian policy makers and executives. Amazingly, Indian government continues to be reactive on all fronts - this is more so in security and defence than in other dimensions. 

After Deng's reforms in 1978, China created a longterm vision of economic development focus till 2000 including assimilation of HongKong, and now they are in the Military capability phase of becoming a superpower. They are well on their way, and that's great planning and amazing focus on the plan for so many decades. 

India is a Nation of Variety

In India, we do not have, as a nation a clarity on what constitutes world power, and also the very nature of Indian democracy and to a great extent social and intellectual fabric of the country, is built on assimilation of variety - its amazing that such large country builds and keeps on creating so much variety in its systems and people. Multiple plans and initiatives of the Government in multiple dimensions on the basis of specific keyholes that they may have, is just a reflection of India as a nation of variety. 

So, if a particular response survives the mess and becomes a capability - such as Agni-V - it will be foolhardy to attribute it to a shrewd response. I would like to state it to be a response of a nation who is reactive and may be more adaptive to changes and hence has a greater chances of survival rather than a nation who design change in the world with the purpose of controlling the world - for example, US policy of "shaping the world" and Chinese objective of becoming a superpower - militarily - by 2020. 

Algorithm for a Nation

India, on the other hand, has been just wriggling in this time of strategic history - and to some extent may be more appropriate as a nation to survive in the world of rapid change. However, I hope, Indian can learn from China and US to start designing change in the world as well - rather than adapting to change. As US is learning now and China will be forced to learn in a decade or so - the best way of course is to have largely an adaptive algorithm for the nation as somehow India has. But India need to structure the adaptive algorithm with a design algorithm to also create the change - that's what India should learn from declining US and rising China!

NOW PUBLISHED AT FRONTIER INDIA AS 

Penetrating US and China Smokescreens – Algorithm for India

Read more: http://frontierindia.net/penetrating-us-and-china-smokescreens-algorithm-for-india#ixzz1sw1JUmsy