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Sunday, December 02, 2007

The Next Chinese Outsourcing Wave - Drug Development

The News article caught my eyes. The next wave of oursourcing is drug development.

Are there such easily decipherable boundaries that we can call next wave etc. How does media create this reports? Some weeks back we looked at Butler services and tutor services outsourced to India - some media story teller prclaiming next waves.

When do we really start calling some trend as a wave? When do we really look at a discontinuity from the ongoing trends - is it evolutionary or step-jump? Are there really ways to forecast? Are there really trends?

Altshuller the creator of TRIZ found some trends in system evolution - the technological systems evolution. Are there trends everywhere? If yes than what are Black Swans - the phenomenon described by NNT in this book as well as his previous book - Fooled by Randomness.

How do we really understand trends - I have no answer?

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