Few weeks back my friend Prof. Rajan Pandey suggested that couple of his students from Christ College in Bangalore pursuing B.A. in Political Science may like to interview me for their thesis to be submitted for the degree.
One of the Students was working on "Online Radicalization by ISIS".
His questions and my answers sent over email below :
1)
Online recruitment methods used by ISIS (Online Radicalization perspectives)
Answer:
Need, Narratives and Networks are the key tenets of influence and also creating
desirable actionable responses from the influenced. However, there are many
differences in human nature, experience and contexts. Yet, there are certain
commonalities - above all there is a strong identity concept in human
civilization that is deeply embedded - its start with me, mine and ours. There
are entangled hierarchies and networks of identities in all of us.
Radicalization
of population (especially young impressionable minds) has a long history. It
may be a reaction to the simmering discontent or perceived or real exploitation
or persecution of a specific class, group, community or identity. Some percent
of the population will be more susceptible to such influence.
In
the last 20-25 years or so we have seen a sharp rise of violent extremism and
also a rapid rise of technology (read internet) driven long-range,
multi-dimensional and multi-channel connectivity.
Reach
and effectiveness of messaging (of all kinds of messages) has exploded in a
connected world.
Every
political, religious, commercial, business, ideological and spiritual group has
started and exploited these connections of pure technology to build narratives
for influence, control, agenda proliferation and actionable response.
In
my opinion - all line recruitment methods are the same in principle for all.
The extent to which the recruitment and radicalization is influenced depends
upon the following (whether one need to impregnate the human mind with a meme
or a mind-virus, the factors are the same)
(a)
Individual Susceptibility that depends upon the appeal of the message embedded
in the narrative. Further, appeal depends upon the extent of similarity or
congruence of the mental model that the individual has with the
experience and information. Second sub-factor is the propensity of the
individual to react or act based on the narrative or information. Third factor
is his method of investigating the information and his way of thinking about
the world that comes from family, education, culture and society and individual
overall cumulative experience and cognitive structure that has emerged in his
life so far. these three sub-factors create a heterogeneous mix of
susceptibility of individual.
(b)
Context, Timeliness and Accuracy of the information and narrative
Context
and time in which the individual finds himself/herself when he is receiving,
processing or mulling-over the narrative or series of narratives create the web
of thoughts that get embedded in the human mind. The accuracy of information -
relevant pick of key juicy components of real world events with the aim and
objective to influence and reach the inner world of an individual who is
susceptible is the task of the narrative designers. It should have some
commonality with the truth on the ground with enough twist to make the mind
believe in the reliability of information as an evidence for taking action or
creating reaction.
(c)
Network Structure
The
homogeneity of the network of the individual with closeness to specific centers
of memes or mind-viruses is the key to the radicalization.
So
the Need, Narrative and Networks are being exploited by everyone with
remarkable innovation to synthesize reality for all of us. Some of us are
succumb to the narratives based on our individual biases and susceptibilities.
2)
Use of online methods for psychological warfare – psychological
conditioning/brainwashing.
Answer:
I guess the general structure is the same as in answer to question 1.
3)
How the states around the world as trying to counter it.
Answer:
I
think the states (nation states) have taken very gross way of countering online
influence and psy-war methods and structure. It is similar to what has come as
countering to medical epidemics - like virus in population that spread very
fast through various connections. In the case of online structural influence as
well - states have taken similar ways - stopping the internet, media, blocking
people from all means of connecting with each other and to outside world is
definitely the typical response. In that time, assumption and effort is that
state can find out the narratives of influence and people who are radicalizing
or are radicalized and subdue or transform them before releasing the blocks on
networks. That is not very effective and has long-term consequences that simmer
late discontent.
second
is to create your own narratives of anti-radicalization or de-radicalization.
These also have been used as counter narratives or memes. These as well are not
been effective in democracies.
third
and most rational approach which has long-term benefits perhaps is to have
dialogue with the susceptible individuals and to understand and solve their
concerns and problems. This is what has been called a "wicked
problem" and has not been tried and attempted to the extent that is
needed.
4)
How is the current phase of terrorism (ISIS) different from the previous phases
(al Qaeda, Taliban...)
Tech-Savvy with AI driven Fake-news and ability to synthesize narratives and
create what has been called "manufactured reality" is already
creating a peculiar blend of influence and divisiveness that is coupled with
increasing shift towards "right" side of the political social and
economic spectrum that the world that was being globalized through increasing
multi-dimensional connectivity is now moving towards a "trust-lost"
islands of identities that doesn't augur well for the coming decade. the 2010's
anti-globalization backlash with a spectacular rise of china is moving towards
a possible chaotic world in 2020's that need changes in the substrate of
narratives and influence and also a super arching meme that should unify the
world based on liberal order established for the harmonizing world else we are
all becoming tech-savvy, highly-educated and yet influenced terrorists !
*******
Thanks to the above questions and the effort spent to answer them, I wrote the following article that was published by IDR
Synthetic Reality - The Sixth Wave of Innovation threat to National Security
Synthetic Reality - The Sixth Wave of Innovation Threat to National Security
Synthetic Reality - The Sixth Wave of Innovation threat to National Security
Synthetic Reality - The Sixth Wave of Innovation threat to National Security
http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/synthetic-reality-the-sixth-wave-of-innovation-threat-to-national-security/
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