Since the demise of USSR in 1989 and 1991 Gulf War, The world has witnessed a Uni-Polar world in the shape of USA defining the so called World order. The way US defined, shaped, exercised and created the new world order has however, transitioned to emergence of new power poles - Notably Multi-dimensional China and Militarily Technology, Military and Oil dimensional Russia. Besides, these two, EU has become more inward and India and Japan are impacted and need to respond to new world order of China Emerging as a potential threat in Asia.
Multi-Polar World
World Power in the 4 key spheres of Diplomatic, Informational, Military and Economic (DIME) requires and enables multiple players to exercise their specific instruments to gain and sustain an edge over others to influence, define and nudge others to achieve their objectives. The world has rapidly emerged where other National players are emerging. In our book published in 2004, we painted a picture of a Penta-Polar world comprising of US, China, EU, Russia and India. Japan and others were potentially mentioned as well.
The nebulous contours of Multi-polarity are emerging and we may have a multi-polar world starting next decade.
US-China DuoPoly
In 2006, Niall Ferguson, described an idea of China and America “effectively become fused to become a single economy,” the interactions of which were driving a “global financial boom, with its correlated upward movement of virtually every asset class.” The Financial Crisis of 2008-2009 the short-life of such an idea. However, in 2009, as described here, “Strategic and Economic Dialogue” between the United States and China has breathed fresh life into the notion of an emerging duopoly – the so-called G-2. For many the symbolism of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Beijing urging the Chinese to keep buying US treasury bills was visible evidence of the interdependence of the two powers. Before the latest event, two scholars even coined a catchword – ‘Chimerica’ – to describe the new power structure. The reality, however, is less colorful: Given the wide differences between the two, economic co-dependence alone would not a Sino-American condominium make.
In 2017, Meghnath Desai described that in the foreseeable future world will be US-China Duo-Poly.
He further reiterates for India, " Some formula will have to be found which can smooth a transition in which China gets back much of its lost territory from what used to be part of Tibet. Indian politicians have not yet woken up to the intensity of Chinese feeling on this. How any leader can convey to the Indian people that the border is illegitimate is difficult to guess. Of course, the one road is war. It has to be avoided as far as possible. But there has been a frozen peace on the Himalayan border for the last 60 years. Doklam was a small incident, but there will be many more such. Xi wants to take China to its old glory, and make it the dominant power it used to be. China has devoted its last 40 years to building up a powerful economy and army. One purpose for this was regaining China’s glory. In a G2 world, India has to be much more focused on its growth and military, and devise a diplomacy which makes sure that somehow this problem can be solved without bloodshed. It will not be easy."
Uni-Poly World
Combining the G2 idea above and with Trump, Xi and Putin at the helm, I suggest a new type of Uni-Poly power structure may emerge - US-China-Russia. This G3 will have some sort of Interest based co-optetion.
Remaining powers remain subservient to this Uni-poly for atleast a decade - till say year 2030.
In this Uni-Poly world order - if US joins BRI of China?
How should India play the Unipolar, Duo-poly, Multi-polarity or the new Uni-Poly world? Indian Options need to be gamed and generated. We may have to see a possibility of India getting isolated.
Multi-Polar World
World Power in the 4 key spheres of Diplomatic, Informational, Military and Economic (DIME) requires and enables multiple players to exercise their specific instruments to gain and sustain an edge over others to influence, define and nudge others to achieve their objectives. The world has rapidly emerged where other National players are emerging. In our book published in 2004, we painted a picture of a Penta-Polar world comprising of US, China, EU, Russia and India. Japan and others were potentially mentioned as well.
The nebulous contours of Multi-polarity are emerging and we may have a multi-polar world starting next decade.
US-China DuoPoly
In 2006, Niall Ferguson, described an idea of China and America “effectively become fused to become a single economy,” the interactions of which were driving a “global financial boom, with its correlated upward movement of virtually every asset class.” The Financial Crisis of 2008-2009 the short-life of such an idea. However, in 2009, as described here, “Strategic and Economic Dialogue” between the United States and China has breathed fresh life into the notion of an emerging duopoly – the so-called G-2. For many the symbolism of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Beijing urging the Chinese to keep buying US treasury bills was visible evidence of the interdependence of the two powers. Before the latest event, two scholars even coined a catchword – ‘Chimerica’ – to describe the new power structure. The reality, however, is less colorful: Given the wide differences between the two, economic co-dependence alone would not a Sino-American condominium make.
In 2017, Meghnath Desai described that in the foreseeable future world will be US-China Duo-Poly.
He further reiterates for India, " Some formula will have to be found which can smooth a transition in which China gets back much of its lost territory from what used to be part of Tibet. Indian politicians have not yet woken up to the intensity of Chinese feeling on this. How any leader can convey to the Indian people that the border is illegitimate is difficult to guess. Of course, the one road is war. It has to be avoided as far as possible. But there has been a frozen peace on the Himalayan border for the last 60 years. Doklam was a small incident, but there will be many more such. Xi wants to take China to its old glory, and make it the dominant power it used to be. China has devoted its last 40 years to building up a powerful economy and army. One purpose for this was regaining China’s glory. In a G2 world, India has to be much more focused on its growth and military, and devise a diplomacy which makes sure that somehow this problem can be solved without bloodshed. It will not be easy."
Uni-Poly World
Combining the G2 idea above and with Trump, Xi and Putin at the helm, I suggest a new type of Uni-Poly power structure may emerge - US-China-Russia. This G3 will have some sort of Interest based co-optetion.
Remaining powers remain subservient to this Uni-poly for atleast a decade - till say year 2030.
In this Uni-Poly world order - if US joins BRI of China?
How should India play the Unipolar, Duo-poly, Multi-polarity or the new Uni-Poly world? Indian Options need to be gamed and generated. We may have to see a possibility of India getting isolated.
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