My Interview: Russia and India Defence and Nuclear Cooperation

Few weeks back my friend Prof. Rajan Pandey suggested that couple of his students from Christ College in Bangalore pursuing B.A. in Political Science may like to interview me for their thesis to be submitted for the degree.

One of the Students was working on "Russia and India Defence and Nuclear Cooperation".

1. Where does India and Russia stand in nuclear and defence sector?

Answer:  I interpret this question as current status about their relationship in these sectors. I will add Space as well. Historically erstwhile USSR and current Russia has shared a deeper relationship with India that has stood the test of time despite major upheavals and transformations of the world. End of cold-war with the demise of USSR and emergence of a Uni-polar world created India’s economic liberalization in the 1990s that has catapulted Indian economy to one of the leading economies of world that are growing rapidly. India has been collaborative nation and has historically leaned towards USSR when it comes to its strategic needs – including missiles, nuclear, defence and space programmes.  World order is going through a re-polarization now and there can be multiple ways the world may evolve. In the last two decades, India responded to US based uni-polar world by participating in Russia, India, China (RIC) grouping. As China became more assertive and USA has taken a view of India being a friend to respond to China, we started working on the QUAD grouping, that has not been as clear in its response to Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative of 2013 (Please see my article  http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/the-chinese-twin-silk-roads-can-india-shake-off-its-lethargy/). India will continue to have string relation with Russia in my opinion in all the key critical sectors – Defence, Nuclear and Space, as the best strategy is to self-interests based multi-alignment in the re-polarizing world (please see my article http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/triad-vs-quad-indian-geopolitical-options-as-a-twin-vertex/).

2. Russia and India have shared years of friendship and cooperation, do you think it will still continue or diminish over time?

Answer: It will continue and evolve as the world re-polarization continues to take shape. (please see the Rand report https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2797.html). In all the possible future scenarios  (except perhaps in (e)) – (a) Uni-polar world under US (b) Uni-polar world under China (c ) Multipolar world (d) Chaos between nation states ( e) Withering away of nation states and emergence of Identity based (religious, ethnic, commercial) entities, India and Russia will continue to find continued and meaningful value in their friendship, although it may become more collaborative. Example, the way Brahmos Missile has been developed by India and Russia together under the MTCR umbrella that west (read US) created.

3. Views on defence & strategic decision making for the $5 Trillion Indian Economy?

Answer: For my views you can read the following articles

At Uday India

(a) https://udayindia.in/2020/02/12/the-15-dimensional-national-security-for-5-trillion-economy-a-wicked-problem/

(b) https://udayindia.in/2016/02/26/agni-5-a-true-game-changer/

At IDI

(a) https://indiandefenceindustries.in/comprehensive-innovation-plan

(b) https://indiandefenceindustries.in/strategic-warfare-phygital

(c) https://indiandefenceindustries.in/quantum-computing-emerging-strategic-dimension

(d) https://indiandefenceindustries.in/evolution-chinese-defence

At IDR

(a) http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/defence-for-the-5-trillion-indian-economy/

(b) http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/responding-to-war-and-warfare-in-the-sixth-wave-of-innovation-2020-2045/

(c)  http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/war-as-a-multi-dimensional-whole-a-framework-for-india-in-a-repolarizing-world/

(d) http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/deadly-targets-of-multi-dimensional-warfare/

(e) http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/indias-national-security-a-view-from-global-structural-changes/

(f) http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/winning-the-asymmetric-wars-matrix-of-instruments-of-war/

(h) http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/can-india-create-the-next-revolution-in-military-affairs/

(i) http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/needed-ministry-of-intelligence-foresight-and-design-mifd/

4.  Russia and India signed a contract for the supply of five S-400 missiles, and India went for it despite the open opposition of the United States. How is the implementation of the contract going when the first S-400s reach India? 

Answer:  I interpret this question as how will India deploy these Systems. Well, we have Pakistan and China as our major air threats. China already has received and deployed two regiments of S400 (please see https://thediplomat.com/2019/07/russia-kicks-off-delivery-of-chinas-second-s-400-air-defense-regiment/) .

India will have to balance its Trimpf deployment with respect to the quantum and quality of air-threats from China and Pakistan.

With the recent announcement by new Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) in terms of creation of an integrated Air Defence command, it remains to be seen how these will be commanded (under army or airforce or under a new command).

5. How does Russia’s relationship with other countries have an impact on India’s nuclear and defence sector?

Answer:  I think both countries are wise enough to understand the ground realities of repolarizing world. There are checks and balances and definite strategic messaging and communication from all actors regarding the realignment. For example, rumors of Pakistan receiving Su-35 (https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/russia-pakistan-ties-to-remain-quite-limited/articleshow/57029179.cms?from=mdr). Russia currently has two key export levers – Arms and Oil. India is heavily invested in Russian arms. Both countries are in a historical binding relationship that will endure even though Russia will have China (PLA especially) its customer and potentially Pakistan as well. But, India also has a stronger leverage to opt for other partners. My view is we will see more and more collaborative development between Russia and India as also Russia and China as well.

6. Views on the defence and nuclear deals; and how did it evolve overtime and what value it holds to acquire India’s growth in these sectors?

Not sure about this question. India has been a most responsible nuclear power since it showed its capability in 1974 Peaceful Nuclear Explosion (PNE). The updated Nuclear deal with US where US will be building 6 nuclear power plants in India is welcome for rapidly emerging power needs of the country. India has done well to wriggle through the 2008 deal and luckily with Westinghouse declaring bankruptcy, India-US will work together to build the nuclear power plants. Secondly, we will have these power capabilities without losing our strategic freedom to opt to develop nuclear weapon capability.

7. What should India do today? Are there any action plan to explore innovation potential in the defence sector?

Kindly read my article  https://udayindia.in/2020/02/12/the-15-dimensional-national-security-for-5-trillion-economy-a-wicked-problem/

8. Can you throw some light on the modes to evaluate these military transformations? (Models/Research papers)

There are umpteen references without any specific silver bullet. The Military Technology Revolution (MTR) was coined by USSR in 1980s that became Revolution in Military Affairs in 1990s and Military Transformation in 2010’s. Profound change is affected by new technologies. Please see

https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/reprints/2010/RAND_RP1413.pdf

also read my article http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/responding-to-war-and-warfare-in-the-sixth-wave-of-innovation-2020-2045/

9. “India was faced with a difficult task of re-orientation of its foreign policy conduct worldwide, after the collapse of Soviet Union.” Can you review the problems that India faced during that period and if there were any major impact on the India’s nuclear and defence sector? 

In 1990s India was impacted in many dimensions due to uni-polar world under USA and demise of USSR in 1989. India globalized and liberated its economy. But key issues that we suffered were delays in our home grown capabilities. For Example, the Cryogenic Engine development for satellite launch vehicles. The false ISRO spy case led to delay of GSLV capability by more than a decade. 1998 Nuclear tests were also needed to bring out Pakistani nukes in open and also communicate the strength of India in the hypocritical world of Big-powers.

10. Your book (“Strategic Decision Making- Applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process”) talks about strategic decision making, can you elaborate on the military based strategies of India?

When it comes to Strategy at the national level, there are key inputs that are essential – National Interests. India’s national interests are not very clearly articulated in an existing national level document. So we are left with the written document that is our Constitution to base upon the military or national strategy. India do not have a clearly articulated Grand Strategy as well. Further on Indian strategic thought, Tanham’s 1992 essay was not very positive https://www.rand.org/pubs/reports/R4207.html (although it has seen many rebuttals).

My book talks about a technique to convert qualitative inputs of experts into quantitative rankings the (analytic hierarchy process) and how it has been and can be applied for strategic decision making. For example recently we used AHP to prioritize national security requirements for India. Please see http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/indias-national-security-a-view-from-global-structural-changes/

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Unipolar world to multipolar or towards a Unique UNI-POLY World - Emerging World Order

Since the demise of USSR in 1989 and 1991 Gulf War, The world has witnessed a Uni-Polar world in the shape of USA defining the so called World order. The way US defined, shaped, exercised and created the new world order has however, transitioned to emergence of new power poles - Notably Multi-dimensional China and Militarily Technology, Military and Oil dimensional Russia. Besides, these two, EU has become more inward and India and Japan are impacted and need to respond to new world order of China Emerging as a potential threat in Asia.



Multi-Polar World 

World Power in the 4 key spheres of Diplomatic, Informational, Military and Economic (DIME) requires and enables multiple players to exercise their specific instruments to gain and sustain an edge over others to influence, define and nudge others to achieve their objectives. The world has rapidly emerged where other National players are emerging. In our book published in 2004,  we painted a picture of a Penta-Polar world comprising of US, China, EU, Russia and India. Japan and others were potentially mentioned as well.

The nebulous contours of Multi-polarity are emerging and we may have a multi-polar world starting next decade.

US-China DuoPoly  

 In 2006, Niall Ferguson, described an idea of China and America  “effectively become fused to become a single economy,” the interactions of which were driving a “global financial boom, with its correlated upward movement of virtually every asset class.” The Financial Crisis of 2008-2009 the short-life of such an idea. However, in 2009, as described here, “Strategic and Economic Dialogue” between the United States and China has breathed fresh life into the notion of an emerging duopoly – the so-called G-2. For many the symbolism of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Beijing urging the Chinese to keep buying US treasury bills was visible evidence of the interdependence of the two powers. Before the latest event, two scholars even coined a catchword – ‘Chimerica’ – to describe the new power structure. The reality, however, is less colorful: Given the wide differences between the two, economic co-dependence alone would not a Sino-American condominium make.

In 2017, Meghnath Desai described that in the foreseeable future world will be US-China Duo-Poly.

He further reiterates for India, " Some formula will have to be found which can smooth a transition in which China gets back much of its lost territory from what used to be part of Tibet. Indian politicians have not yet woken up to the intensity of Chinese feeling on this. How any leader can convey to the Indian people that the border is illegitimate is difficult to guess. Of course, the one road is war. It has to be avoided as far as possible. But there has been a frozen peace on the Himalayan border for the last 60 years. Doklam was a small incident, but there will be many more such. Xi wants to take China to its old glory, and make it the dominant power it used to be. China has devoted its last 40 years to building up a powerful economy and army. One purpose for this was regaining China’s glory. In a G2 world, India has to be much more focused on its growth and military, and devise a diplomacy which makes sure that somehow this problem can be solved without bloodshed. It will not be easy."

Uni-Poly World
 Combining the G2 idea above and with Trump, Xi and Putin at the helm, I suggest a new type of Uni-Poly power structure may emerge - US-China-Russia. This G3 will have some sort of Interest based co-optetion.
Remaining powers remain subservient to this Uni-poly for atleast a decade - till say year 2030.

In this Uni-Poly world order - if US joins BRI of China?

How should India play the Unipolar, Duo-poly, Multi-polarity or the new Uni-Poly world? Indian Options need to be gamed and generated. We may have to see a possibility of India getting isolated.