Well the problem is the following
In the following rectangular array ofnumbers - can you predict the value of X's - all values take from {1,2,3,4 or 5}
1 5 X 4 X 5 X 2 3 X X X 4
X X X X X 5 X 5 1 X X X 2
X X X 4 4 4 4 4 3 1 1 2 X
1 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2
3 4 5 5 2 5 3 3 4 1 1 1 1
My Book on Strategic Decision Making
Applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process
Showing posts with label prediction. Show all posts
Showing posts with label prediction. Show all posts
Saturday, August 09, 2008
Tuesday, August 05, 2008
Rating Systems
How do we rate things?
Supposing you are asked to rate something (say a book, movie, product, anything) on a scale of 1 to 5. What happens to your mind?
Do you really look at the scale? Do you really look at the product or item alone? Do you benchmark it with something that you already have seen? Does the rating change with time - meaning say in 1999 you rated a book as 2/5 but in 2004 when you read the book - your rating actually changed to 4/5 of the same book) as now you have grown 5 years become more aware and may be understand the book better? Based on your past behavior of rating things, can it be predicted with sufficient accuracy that if you get a new item, your rating will be say 3?
Fooled by Randomness author may say that this prediction, forecasting based on past ratings actually is big fraud? it is beyond anything that we know... yet we have systems that want to achieve this?
Supposing you are asked to rate something (say a book, movie, product, anything) on a scale of 1 to 5. What happens to your mind?
Do you really look at the scale? Do you really look at the product or item alone? Do you benchmark it with something that you already have seen? Does the rating change with time - meaning say in 1999 you rated a book as 2/5 but in 2004 when you read the book - your rating actually changed to 4/5 of the same book) as now you have grown 5 years become more aware and may be understand the book better? Based on your past behavior of rating things, can it be predicted with sufficient accuracy that if you get a new item, your rating will be say 3?
Fooled by Randomness author may say that this prediction, forecasting based on past ratings actually is big fraud? it is beyond anything that we know... yet we have systems that want to achieve this?
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