An International Conference on Technology and Innovation Management was held at Kathmandu, Nepal during 10-12 October 2012
The Conference LINK is HERE
Being one of the key note speakers, I gave a talk on Crafting New Choices - Innovation and Decision-Making in Globalizing World
The Extended Abstract is below
Crafting New
Choices –
Innovation and
Decision-Making in the Globalizing World
Navneet Bhushan
Email: navneet.bhushan@crafitti.com
Bangalore, INDIA
Extended
Abstract
That the world is changing
is no brainer. That it is changing rapidly is also becoming painfully clear.
However, what is shocking and difficult to comprehend is that the world is
changing rapidly in multiple dimensions, in multiple ways from multiple
directions in each dimension. This is unprecedented. The scale of change along
with the speed of change is conspiring to make it exceedingly difficult for us
to respond to the new – as the new arrives rapidly, more frequently
and from unknown directions, these days. What further compounds the problems
are our existing methods of responding to these challenges are failing –
failing miserably. We need new ways. These may be evolved from the existing
known ways to solve problems, imagine a new future or improve an existing
system. This evolution may lead to new set of tools, techniques, methodologies
and frameworks for us to think, imagine and execute the new or ways of
responding to the new. Alternatively, these methods may be radically different
from the existing ways.
STEMIC-TCP
Model
Yet there are key fundamentals of the world – at least of the conscious world
that we have deciphered so far – that remain. First fundamental is Space-Time
which integrates space and time. Space and time were considered two separate
fundamentals but modern physics integrated them as space-time. Space and Time Make
up the Physics of the Seen while Space-Time the physics of the very tiny and
very large. The second fundamental is Energy-Matter. If one look at the world
around us, the universe itself, is an organization of Energy-Matter in
Space-Time. The systems thinkers have talked about Matter, Energy and
Information. If we look at the basic building blocks of universe we have Space
and Time (Space-time), Energy and Matter (Energy-Matter), and Information. It is information that
organizes matter and energy in Space-time. We call these the STEMI. The STEMI
can organize or change its organization on its own based on principle of
maximum entropy or can be orchestrated
by Thought and Consciousness, i.e., the Mind
of the "Matter" - the artificial. The ability to reorganize matter
and energy in space-time using information is the ability of the Man. This
requires Thought and Consciousness. This is the fourth fundamental which we
call Mind. The ability to create these changes in matter and energy to organize
into structures, I call, the Power. Hence the mind has Thoughts, Consciousness
and hence Power (the TCP). The orchestrated changes in STEMI and changes in TCP
due to observations from STEMI are driving the world towards increasing
capability, evolution and design.
At the basic level of this
framework lies a conceptual construct called a System. When we talk about definition of a System - from
fundamental principles point of view – a System can be defined as a set of elements
(Energy-Matter organized in Space-Time) working together (exchanging energy and/or
information) and with the environment to achieve an objective or perform a
function (create Change - in matter, energy and information in space-time).
When the system is achieved/changed by thought and consciousness we make systems artificial. The ability to
create and control CHANGE is Power. We call this the STEMIC TCP Model. Hence we
need to leverage the new methods in the light of these four fundamentals.
Crafting
New Choices - Framework
Whatever these new ways and
whatever their origins be it is becoming painfully clear that we have to
understand the new reality of globalization and complexity. We have to respond
to continuously emerging new reality in ways that are not fathomed so far. As
it has happened in the past, humanity has responded to new challenges by
application of mind. Time has come to integrate the disparate capabilities of
human mind – creativity, decision-making
and innovation – into an integrated framework. Only through an integrative
approach incorporating all key dimensions of human thinking – developed over
past many centuries – can we respond to the new challenges. We identify five
key dimensions of thinking. The Analytical and Logical thinking developed over
many centuries have stood the test of time. However, three other relatively
dormant dimensions of human thinking need to be brought to the forefront and
integrated with these established thinking dimensions to respond to new
challenges. These are – Inventive Thinking, Value Thinking and Systems
Thinking.
These five thinking
dimensions need to be integrated and applied in a manner so as to create new
solutions to problems and meeting the current and emerging needs of the new
world. This paper proposes an integrated thinking framework to respond to the
new challenges. Further, the manner of applying this framework requires understanding
the world and the needs of the new world. We need new or different lenses to
understand the world. Our lenses need to evolve to go deeper and go wider in
the world around us. We need to explore our world faster and at a scale that we
have not accomplished before. Only when we have understood the world – or at
least have some semblance of working of the world can we apply our thinking to create
the needed change.
Therefore, the first phase
is really to understand the world around us. Understand the needs of the
changing world. We name the first step as Explore.
Second phase is to generate ideas. We name it Ideate. This requires application of integrated thinking combining
the five dimensions of analysis, logic, value, inventions, and systems to
invent, design, create or engineer new concepts/solutions to the new needs. For
each of these needs, we may generate many different solutions. However, these
ideas may not propagate much in the world which normally doesn’t welcome the
new. Ideas need to be given enough shape, form and strength not only to live,
but to strive and thrive in the world. Empower
is the third phase. Objective is to empower ideas. Here, we focus on Craft. We define crafting as a process of giving shape, form and structure to an
abstract concept or idea in such a manner that it performs specific functions
or behave in specific ways under a range of environmental conditions and
situations. Also, crafting distinguishing itself from engineering – where a
repeated process creates a repeated replica or similar/same product or system.
We realize, when we are crafting,
variation/variability is not only not-bad
but is essential to create the new or
respond to the new. Further, crafting is essential to propagate the new
concepts and solutions rapidly so that they are used and implemented by many. The
conceived set of solutions or the new system conceptualized to achieve specific
function, need to be communicated to existing users and potential users. The
new solutions need to be related to
their context. They should be allowed
to use these solutions. Their use of new solutions should be studied with a follow-up. With these inputs from the
experiences of the users, solutions should be adjusted in various contexts to turn-around the users to the new
solutions.
We call this framework Crafting New Choices. This is the
framework that combines three key human capabilities – Creativity, Decision-Making
and Innovation. The framework
integrates multiple techniques, methods and methodologies, and is an open-framework with three key phases for
responding to new challenges of globalizing complexity. As mentioned, we are
living in a rapidly globalizing world. The new globalizing world is
characterized by rapid change. One may argue that change is the only constant
in our world anyway, however, the pace of change in the globalizing world
enabled by technological advances in multiple dimensions, requires
understanding and responses that are unprecedented. In this changing world,
rules of the game can change anytime; success will come to those who adapt
quickly to the new rules. And as is common understanding, the best way one can adapt to the new rules is by writing these rules.
In these highly evolving times, with extreme uncertainties and time
compressions, it is the successful creation of changing through ideas, i.e.,
Innovation, can be the only competitive advantage. The Crafting New Choices framework gives an integrated solution
combining creativity, decision-making and innovation.
Law
of Increasing Intelligence of Technical Systems
Despite its discovery by
Darwin, 150 years back, acceptance of evolution by natural selection as a
possible model of explanation of progress of cosmos is a relatively recent
phenomenon. One of the earlier recognition of evolution due to ingenuity of
human mind reflected in the successful inventions described in patents and
technological knowledge was discovered and explained by the Theory of Inventive
Problem Solving (TRIZ). This resulted in discovery of laws of evolution of
technical systems which became the basis of classical TRIZ. The purpose of
evolution of technical systems was to achieve the “Ideal system”. Technical
systems exist or are created to perform a function. The ideal technical system
describes the fulfillment of the function with reduction in number of the
elements of technical system that actuates the function. TRIZ and its laws of
evolution of technical systems explained in the era of physical systems – the
era of machines – explained the fulfillment of function in an ideal way.
From the era of machines –
dominated by automobile – which incidentally became the model for classical
TRIZ – we are witnessing the era of information. Our understanding of
“information” – its nature and its deeper manifestations – is increasing day by
day. When we started investigating the applicability of laws of system
evolution as described by TRIZ in the current era of information, we realized
that TRIZ, understandably missed the key ingredient, i.e., information,
embedded in technical systems.
We discovered that human
beings by collectively evolving their technical systems, are trying to make
each technical system as close to a human being as possible – or at least a
model of human being and its environment based on the current understanding of
the world (for example, understanding of laws of physics and chemistry in
making an automobile) and the current understanding of the system called the
human being. As man understands the world around it as well as its body and its
mind, it wants to create an “ideal man” or at least an idealized human of all
technical systems it is creating. This is an unexpected discovery and may take
the readers used to classical TRIZ, sometime to accept it.
We propose that the technical
systems emerged due to increasing understanding of two key fundamentals of
universe and their interactions – these are Space-Time and Energy-Mass (the
STEM). Every technical system in the
physical era is a reflection of organization and reorganization in higher and
higher order structures of mass-energy organized in space-time. We propose,
based on our recent and deeper understanding of “information”, that information
itself is one of the fundamentals just like space-time and mass-energy. We need
to understand the concept of ideal system in the light of this proposal of
making information itself as fundamental. This increases the complexity of
technical systems, however, with three fundamentals – space-time, energy-matter
and information – we get new lens to view the evolution of technical systems.
The machine era gave way to
information era, when we started embedding information in the technical
systems. The more we understand information and its related processing
capability – computing – the more we are embedding it in the physical systems.
In the era of information, technical systems started becoming “smart” and
“brilliant” – the adjectives usually reserved for predominantly human faculty,
i.e., intelligence.
Given our understanding of
the current information era and how technical systems are evolving from their
predominantly physical characteristics into information enriched technical
systems, we propose in this paper a new law – the law of increasing
intelligence of technical systems. Further, as we understand and realize the
era of information which emerged under the shadow of era of machines – we need
to see how the integration of third fundamental – that is information – to STEM
making it STEMI – is impacting the evolution of technical systems. Information
is rapidly becoming all pervasive, all embedded, and all penetrated. We realize
the ideal technical system today, not only need to perform certain pre-defined
functions, but also process information for example, to choose the function it
needs to perform at a particular moment. In fact, every system should behave as
an information processing system before they actually perform their physical
functions in reorganizing/manipulating STEM. The STEMI interactions in
technical systems, indeed has made the modern systems closer to human beings in
their ability to process information, to create, re-organize, self-organize
into new structures, control and manage precision of physical effects.
Further, we realize, since we have
what some observers describe as the law of accelerating future, the fourth
fundamental, i.e., mind, will be integrated into technical systems sooner than
later. Even though information era is still continuing, with the STEMI
integration, we have already started a deeper quest into the emergent
phenomenon of complexity called the mind. The mind is now being thought of to
be reflected in our future technical systems. We believe, when we integrate the
ability to process thoughts and in fact create “inventive” technical systems,
we will enter the era of Genius Systems.
In an influencing work,
“The singularity is near”, Ray Kurzweil, defined why some futurists predict
that non-biological intelligence will exceed biological intelligence by 2050 AD
or so. We will enter the era of mind and beyond with Genius Systems giving way
to Trans-Human Intelligence Systems (THIS). In the era of mind, the ideality
will be defined in creating “perfect ideas” by the genius systems/trans-human
intelligent systems – they may turn out to be “inventive Mr. Spocks” or
“uncontrolled Frankenstein’s”. It is also a question for future, just as the
key question to answer for us is why nature in its evolution missed “the wheel”
but did not miss “opposable thumb”.
The “natural selection”
articulated and sold incorrectly as “survival of the fittest” has created
immense problems in our history. Evolution, in fact, doesn’t support it. Nature
prefers to retain as much variety as possible. The evolution progresses by
“elimination of the weakest”. This is visible in evolution of technical systems
as well. Technical systems however, have been chosen/developed/progressed
through investment of immense material and intellectual resources of humanity.
The evolution of technical systems in the STEMI era – driven by faulty
“survival of the fittest” guidance, has created extreme competition in men,
societies, countries and civilizations to control evolution. Whether it was
designed by nature to speed-up evolution or was an innocent error of nature?
The arguments can be created with same passion and logic by the proponents of
the counter model to evolution, i.e., the intelligent design of the universe,
vis-Ã -vis the evolutionary model. Yet Genetic algorithms, cellular automata and
game of life in 1970s and 1990s showed us that “self-reproducing” systems are a
reality and we can discover the laws/principles underlying these systems. We
need to reach specific level of complexity to be able to “self-reproduce”
besides achieving other emergent properties of complex systems. The argument is
strengthened by the emergent of mind due to complexity of brain.
We are in the era of information
today. This is an era that has replaced the era of machines that started with
industrial revolution. This era of information is giving us systems that are
becoming increasingly intelligent.
From the dumb systems that were
responding to inputs to perform specific functions, we have evolved to guided systems and smart systems of the information era. The next stage of evolution
of technical systems is increasingly becoming clear as we are seeing emergence
of brilliant systems which we predict
will become genius systems. By 2050
AD, the world will have technical systems with more intelligence than
biological intelligence – predicted as the Singularity.
From information era we are now entering rapidly into the era of mind. This we
call as law of increasing intelligence of
technical systems.
This keynote talk will
describe the framework for innovation and decision making which we call Crafting New Choices in view of the
STEMIC-TCP Model and law of increasing intelligence of technical systems as a
framework to navigate the globalizing innovation complexity.
About the Author
Navneet Bhushan (Navneet) is a founder director of CRAFITTI
CONSULTING (www.crafitti.com) –
an innovation consulting and research firm focused on co-crafting innovation in
global enterprises. He is the principal author of Strategic Decision Making-
Applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process published by Springer-Verlag, UK, as
part of the Decision Engineering Series. Navneet Blogs at http://innovationcrafting.blogspot.com. He can be contacted at navneet(dot)bhushan(at)
crafitti(dot)com. Currently he is working on his new book titled Crafting New
Choices.
1 comment:
Thiss was great to read
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