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My Book on Strategic Decision Making

My Book on Strategic Decision Making
Applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process

Monday, July 28, 2008

anti-terrorism, Can Innovation Methods Help?

The recent serial bomb blasts in Bangalore and Ahmedabad have shaken India once again. What are really the key solutions for this menace.

CAN THE INNOVATION METHODS THAT WE KNOW OF, CAN THE METHODS OF IDEATION, CAN THE BRAINSTORMING TECHNIQUES HELP SOLVE THESE PROBLEMS?

I really dont know - but it is imperative to CREATE A CREATIVE, INNOVATIVE AND POWERFUL RESPONSE TO THE ATTACKS?

I have a feeling more than the methods - we need strong WILL POWER, GOVERNANCE AND CONTINUOUS FOCUSSED ATTENTION TO THIS THREAT TO OUR BASIC EXISTENCE ITSELF.

Friday, July 25, 2008

transforming scientists into Innovators

Knowledge - Deep knowledge in a particular field is essential to Innovate? Right?

May be. However there is this logical condition "Necessary but not sufficient". In fact, many times or most of the times - more knowledge you have - more deeper expert you are, bigger scientist you are, less likely that you will be an INNOVATOR!

Right? well... ? May be.

In fact - "More you know, more you know, how less you know" - gives an interesting view of indefinite spiral of knowledge in a deep field. There are no bottom out - Yet one can get saturated!

Take the Horizontal dimension - in stead of one deep field I explore a wide variety of fields - take inputs from all and then solve my problems. Can this strategy make me a better Innovator?

I think - psychological inertia of deep experts is one problem for Innovation and second problem is superficiality of breadth managers - who know so many fields that they really don't know anything in -particular.

Yet - the combination is needed to Innovate?

The problem is how to make scientists into Innovators - may be by assisting them come out of their core competence or psychological inertia! Second how to make the wide breadth business managers Innovators - may be by assisting them to go deeper into a particular field by solving spirals of problems...

Nevertheless - There is a Need to Transform Scientists into Innovators and there is a need to transform business managers into Innovators!

How to do this? Some thoughts are emerging at Crafitti Consulting (http://www.crafitti.com)

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

FRIENDS AND FOES

THERE ARE NO PERMANENT FRIENDS - THERE ARE NO PERMANENT FOES

THERE ARE ONLY PERMANENT INTERESTS


INDIAN PARLIAMENT AND THE CONFIDENCE VOTE SHOWED


WHAT THE HELL IS HAPPENING?

Could the MPs seriously think about nuclear deal - I dont think anyone of 541 really gave any iota of importance to the deal - it is ME ME ME and MY INTERESTS - Money, Power, Position and Political alignments!



Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Network centricity and Attention Economy

Network Centric Organization
(A network-centric organization is a network governance pattern emerging in many progressive 21st century enterprises. This implies new ways of working, with consequences for the enterprise’s infrastructure, processes, people and culture. With a network-centric configuration, knowledge workers are able to create and leverage information to increase competitive advantage through the collaboration of small and agile self-directed teams.)

and

The Attention Economy

(Attention economics is an approach to the management of information that treats human attention as a scarce commodity, and applies economic theory to solve various information management problems.)

are they related?

Wikipedia doesnt relate these two globalization enablers or results.


Do you think they are related?

Network Centricity

What is NETWORK CENTRIC THINKING?

Since we have lived in the age of hierarchies and pyramids - we are not used to horizontal or network thinking ......

What is the difference between NET CENTRIC THINKING vs HIERARCHICAL THINKING ...

Is this an important question to ponder? Before that we really need to understand NETWORKS ....

Really speaking as of now WE don't understand NETWORKS.


Saturday, July 19, 2008

Co-Creation – The Competitive Advantage in the Connected Age

In the GIXBang world (The interacting trends of increasing globalization, innovation and complexity we term as the GIXBang world) what is our competitive advantage? This is a key question enterprises need to ask. Not many years back competitive advantage was determined by how much of natural resources one possesses. In the era of industrialization, competitive advantage shifted to how much one can produce or manufacture. One can see that the era of industrialization created a world which was more connected through multiple advances in communications, transport and movement of goods. The information era that was born from the advancements in electronics, shifted the loci of competitive advantage to how much and how rapidly one gets information about everything that impacts the business.
Soon people realized that amount of information is not really what is useful for competitive advantage. It is the processed information combined with experience based rules and heuristics, that is the knowledge to act, that will lead to competitive advantage. The start of new millennium has brought to the center stage the ability to rapidly adapt to change as the key competitive advantage. As we all know the cliché the best way to adapt to a change is to create that change. Hence the first decade of new millennium has shown us the ability to create successful change, i.e., Innovation is the key competitive advantage. This has resulted in mass creation of books on Innovation, Innovation processes, methodologies and what not. Continuous Innovation as the only competitive advantage is the current thinking, as the world is changing so rapidly that complexity is exponentially increasing. The globalization which increases connections across geographies and dependencies across fields fuels complexity through rapid pace of change. This is unprecedented and our old methods and philosophies are failing, failing miserably. The new world seeks and feeds on connections and change. Hence innovation is the new competitive advantage.
As we enter the last twenty percent of the first decade of the new millennium, a new reality is emerging - competition is not about thriving alone. One needs to collaborate to compete. A lone innovator most likely will not win the long-race, one needs to collaborate continuously with all the stakeholders in creating the change that add more overall value than creating zero-sum games of the past century. Your competitive advantage lies in co-creation. One needs to co-create with one’s customers, one’s complementors (a term borrowed from the book Co-opetition), one’s suppliers and even one’s competitors. This is a new world and it has its new ways. Everyone in this world wants to be creating something new, different and unique for oneself. If we provide our customers tools, modules and techniques to create products and services that our customers need, we will be more successful. How do we create this co-creation system in the new world of increasing complexity, increasing globalization and increasing innovation? Well, that’s the main question in the GIXBang world.

GIXBang World – Emergence of Co-Creationization

The Emergence of a New World – Co-Creationization
In August 2005, I was sitting in a group meeting with a Professor from one of the Ivy League Business Schools. In Bangalore, India, it is not every day one get to sit and work with the elite business gurus. I mentioned as a casual remark, that may be to understand and solve business problems using Information Technology (IT), we need to involve our clients in brainstorming. There was a loud No from the Professor. His logic- the customer will color the perception in the brainstorming session with what the customer already has faced and hence will reduce the brainstorming to non-optimal interaction.
Everybody in the room rejected the idea as soon as he said No. This is nothing new for me, as I am used to the usual reaction to anything different that will come up in discussions. We relish the process of nipping the idea in bud! We all wear the De Bono’s black hats – judge before it emerges. The stillborn output of dead brainstorming sessions, we all have seen, participated, and have done nothing about it – it is remarkable we keep on doing same meetings, in same way with same output. The Brainholes that our brainstorming sessions typically reduce to, indicate that we need different tools, techniques and methodologies with some structure to improve the efficacy of our Brainstorming sessions. “We” encompass – all organized human enterprises where problem solving is the core competence. This can be a software development project, a management problem, a research question, design of a new product, movie or advertisement, a manufacturing problem, a process improvement problem, a market expansion problem, a funds allocation problem, and so on. These issues are independent of any type of organization. Even in our family meetings we can observe the output of collective problem solving – typically driven and controlled by the head of the family.So back in August 2005, as soon as the Professor said no, and the body language of each one of the members in the room indicated my foolishness in creating this uncalled for perturbation, I knew that’s the way it has to be. An ability to work with our customers in a brainstorming session may be for half a day workshop is what we all really need. If done properly, one can get to the core of the issues with lot of solution directions thrown in by both sides. The amount of rework, labor burn, heart burn and dollar burn our current approaches lead to can be cut down to zero in a half day brainstorming session with our customers.Before the release of a recent Bollywood movie, the director giving an interview on the Television told that the movie has been shown to “interest groups” chosen from the target audiences of the movie. Further, some of their feedback, comments and suggestions have been taken up to change the movie. If we extend the trend - the director, writer and producer could have brainstormed with the group much before the movie started. The concepts of various story ideas could have been discussed with potential viewers and they could have been part of the process from the beginning. Better still, there could have been partial brainstorms, feedbacks and discussion sessions during the movie making so as to adapt the movie as per the inputs. This is the age of co-creation. The dawn of the age may be signified when “interactive movie production” becomes the new reality. This is after “interactive TV” and “interactive story writing” on the Internet is becoming a reality. The individual in the new world demands continuous involvement in the co-creation. The new world demands, defines and develops new ways. These are not the bland ways of making the world flat – it is really about thriving in the melting pots of creative juices. Evolving the interactions, connections, the networks, and the chaos into rapidly moving and changing structures where the value is not in any fixed static structure or organization. The value lies in the dynamic of the structure. The new thriving, creative and ever evolving world demands new ways to capture value and create value.Are we ready to Co-Create continuously!!!

Value Creation in the GIX Bang World

We are living in a rapidly globalizing world. In this shifting world, rules of the game can change anytime; success will come to those who adapt quickly to the new rules. This new world has been defined by Thomas L. Freedman [“Lexus and Olive Tree”] in contrast to the earlier era as, “While the defining measurement of cold war was weight – particularly the throw weight of missiles – the defining measurement of the globalization system is speed – speed of commerce, travel, communication and INNOVATION”. How fast you innovate and adapt to the globalization is the recipe for success.
As is common understanding, the best way to adapt to the new rules is to write these rules. In these highly competitive times, with extreme uncertainties and time compressions, it is the successful exploitation of ideas, i.e., Innovation, which can be the only competitive advantage. New ideas can come from -- other industries, your competitors, your employees or your customers.
With the plethora of ideas available it is essential that the organizations need to choose the right and relevant ideas to pursue in their quest for competitive advantage. This involves choice, hence decision-making. One of the greatest challenges of human decision-making methodologies has been to help the homo-sapiens in choosing the right path out of many alternatives under the conditions of partial, incorrect and stochastic information about the future. To pursue a particular idea (especially a new technological idea) with unknown returns on investment is becoming one of the most risky decision making problem in the new world.
This brings to the third leg of puzzle, the compleXity (X) of the world. Number of alternatives, time pressure, need for analysis, information de-coherence, connections and networks are increasing at an unprecedented rate. However, human mind has a limitation as discovered of being able to process information within 5 to 9 things as discovered by George A. Miller (1956) and described in the landmark paper Magical Number Seven plus minus two (http://psychclassics.yorku.ca/Miller/). Further there is a fundamental issue of framing the right problem before solving the problems; this is leading to an increasing depreciation of confidence of human beings on their minds. The result is the rapid explosion of complexity. The connections create value but dependencies create complexity, future is approaching us faster than history is leaving us, there is an increasing distance between user requirements of what they really need versus what they claim they want, and with every choice we make today we kill many possible futures.

Globalization, Innovation and complexity (GIX) are increasing simultaneously. This rapid acceleration - I call this the GIX Bang - on the lines of Big Bang. The GIX Bang is happening due to the three inherently coupled trends of increasing globalization, increasing complexity and increasing Innovation. However, these three are so deeply knotted with each other that one can’t have a model of GIX Bang. A mathematical model of GIX bang will involve coupled non-linear equations of rates of change of Globalization (G), Complexity (X) and Innovation (I). Of course, I am not proposing to create that model here. However let us look at the parameters that are impacting these three trends
G is impacted by connections (new ways of technological connectivity across the world), Value (economic, social, military, political, technological, human) across the globe that the connections are enabling, Global real time awareness that creates Ideas to increase globalization, Have-nots of the globalizing world are creating various barriers for controlling these connections which impact globalization adversely.
X is increasing due to dependencies which are global, in multiple dimensions, and much deeper with multiple feedbacks that can create pockets of chaos and pockets of order in the world which leads to more and more of possibility of new - the emergence phenomenon that we all know of.
I is the by product - the G and X interactions demand and will lead to more Innovations - it is the only way for all of us. Innovation feed on and feeds globalization; similarly Innovation reduces complexity and may be constrained by Complexity.
The question that becomes imperative is, “How to create Wealth and Value in the GIX Bang world”?

Friday, July 18, 2008

Inertia - Laziness or just plain non-availability

This is my first post after a gap of more than a fortnight and I will give following excuses - most of them are lame...

I was travelling
I came back last night
I didnt have access to Internet
I was busy more busy in the non-cyber world as I met lot many people
I had huge inertia to put anything on blog
May be it was pure Laziness

and all others that we can think of...

More I think abt the excuses .. more they make me think .... Well....Well Well....
Let me see if I can fulfill 15more days of blogging in next 15 days!

Wednesday, July 02, 2008

Personal Journey - Another Story

I have been told by my good friend C M Reddy to forget about Innovation, Entropy and all the blah blah and concentrate on writing stories - he said this after reading my story Ambition

Well, I will definitely think about it.

Meanwhile I am posting the second story from the book Bhelpuri Thoughts (The book is still being written by the way :))

MURDER (Story written in 1994-95)

This story is not real. But the characters did exist in the real world. I am going to talk about three persons – all three came in my life at some point of time or other but were not linked in any manner with each other. Yet my mind always links them together.

First character is a girl. She used to serve us tea in a shabby shed near out hostel. Actually there were many sheds in a row parallel to the road. The road led to the main market. These sheds have cropped up on the road over the years because of the need of the hostel students to have some meeting place. In each shed a middle-aged person used to make tea and his or her children used to serve it. We used to go to those sheds. The girl’s shed was in the middle. She was very fair – her face was full but she never smiled. Her forehead had vertical lines – the lines were in the area between the two eyebrows – those lines were always there, indicating continuous tension. She looked permanently tensed. Her feet were large. By continuous work and walking around throughout the day near the dirty sheds her feet were broken at various places – yes broken – they were torn – her age would not be more than eighteen yet she looked more mature. She always wore a very light colored suit that was always very neat and clean. We students regularly went to those sheds, sit there, take our tea, read the local newspaper – talk among ourselves and come back to our hostel. We never really gave any importance to the girl. She was there but for us her existence was immaterial. I don’t know her name but we will call her Rani for our story.

The second character is Inspector Loha Singh, a six-footer, with jet-black moustache and with a head built like a battle tank. Hairs on his head were small and were always standing up like the thorns of a porcupine. The thorns were always shining as he kept them well drenched in the barrels of mustard oil. He always carried an iron rod. It was rumored that he was very strict. His name was Loha Singh as he was known to beat the criminals or who so ever is considered a criminal with the iron rod. It was rumored that he had killed many people in the lock up but because of his political connections no action more than his transfer to another police station was ever taken against him. He was the most corrupt police inspector one can think of, the whole city was in awe of him - some liked him, many didn’t. We students, had heard about him – he never really mattered for us – we knew that he existed but he was immaterial or us.

The third person is the most interesting one. He was black, very thin and mad - completely. Hairs on his head were small. His madness was almost harmless. During the winter season he used to roam around the roads without his clothes. On any bone–chilling morning he could be seen jumping only quirkiness was that he would always be without any clothes. We always passed him without giving much attention. During summer days, of course, he would be wearing a warm three-piece suit with a matching black tie. It was unbelievable. Some times we discussed amongst ourselves that may be his mind has lost the sense of season – and it believes winter is summer and summer is winter. These discussions invariably were limited till we pass him; afterwards we never discussed him. His name will be Kalu for our story. While going to the tea-stalls where Rani’s tea stall was also there, we would always meet Kalu – either while standing at a place and brooding over God knows what; or running to and fro between two points.

It was a summer evening; the state elections were to take place within few days. We were sitting in Rani’s tea stall. Evening was very beautiful. Everywhere election candidates were the hot topics. Every one was discussing the possible voting pattern. We were also sitting and in between the tea sips we were talking about that Gopi Gajanand will win the elections. He had good support and it was clear that his opposite candidate would have very difficult time. Radio at the Rani’s tea stall was singing some old Hindi film songs. Suddenly a police jeep came and stopped, four constables armed with rifles got down from it. Then Loha Singh got down. He came out very fast. His huge body came up to Rani’s father who was putting tea in the glasses and he slapped Rani’s father, “Where is that Bastard?” “Tell me, You Dog’s Son, now you will know the meaning of supporting a terrorist”. We were stunned. We didn’t know that had happened. I went up to Loha Singh & asked what has happened. Loha Singh “you don’t come in this; this is not your business”. His son in law has killed Gopi Gajanand Sahib today and he is hiding him. Rani’s father was shocked and pained, folding his hands and with tears in his eyes he said “No Sahib, I don’t know. My son in law can’t do this – I don’t know what you are talking about – Sahib”. Loha Singh slapped him once more “Today, your son in law threw a country made bomb on Gopi Gajanand’s rally and he was killed and I know who has given you money to do this you bastard”. Loha Singh slapped him twice. Rani’s father fell and his face hit the corner of the wooden bench – blood started pouring out and he lost some more of his remaining teeth as well. Loha Singh pulled him up by holding his hair and asked “tell me you bastard where is he or you will be killed” and he hit Rani’s father with the iron rod in his hand. The strike was very powerful and definitely some bone of his arm must have broken with the hit. He fainted.

Suddenly Rani came running and threw herself on Loha Singh” and shouted” you pig, you dog why are you doing this to us. “She leapt up to Loha Singh face and clawed his face with her nails”. We were stunned the peaceful face of Rani was contorted into bitter rage as she scratched Loha Singh’s face. Loha Singh threw her down “ and barked” you bitch, what do you think, you will be saved – you are bastards and will remain bastards only – you bitch “ Loha Singh slapped her once more and then said to the people around, ” This girl’s husband has killed Gopi Gajanand today – and I am going to take all of his family into custody. They are terrorists; they should be treated like dogs – yes like dogs “…”. He could not complete the sentence. Rani had suddenly sprung up and with a roar of a lioness she plunged two iron rods lying nearby into Loha Singh’s enormous stomach. Blood erupted out of his uniform. His face was shocked and we all were stunned by what has happened – Rani didn’t stopped at that, like a cat she poured the kerosene from the kerosene jar and lighted Loha Singh – Loha Singh started burning – his enormous frame was burning – and she was shouting, crying and laughing simultaneously. Suddenly two more police jeeps came and sent us onlookers back to our houses.

Later, we heard that Rani’s, her father and her husband were arrested and will be charged with murder.

After many weeks we went back to the tea stall. We talked amongst ourselves and I don’t know why I asked the tea stall owner “where is Kalu these days what has happened to him”. He said “you don’t know Babu; He was arrested by the police”. I was surprised and asked him “on what charges could a mad man be arrested” He said for killing the party candidate. I said killing the party candidate. I said what do you mean - Rani’s husband killed Gopi Gajanand. He very calmly said “yes, Kalu is Rani’s Husband, babu”.

Blog Writing - A Stress Buster

My friend Suresh has started writing a new blog as he sent an email below

" Here it is: http://crsuresh.blogspot.com/ surprisingly a lot of Sanskrit names were taken away already> ... so i settled for this :-) i will link
up my http://alochan.blogspot.com entries into this soon.

As usual thanks to navneet for pushing me again to write.. "

(Well, I think, These Sins are Suresh's Alone - and I have no hand in here :))

But this led me to respond thus

"For me writing the blog has become a stress buster -- of course - this
is based on assumption as if there is stress - may be we dont feel - but
I do feel some sort of release after writing - nowadays I am finding as
I write the blog my writing on other forms - papers etc has drastically
reduced as the craving is satisfied by writing a blog a day!

so may be it has to balanced !!!"

The response I got from CM Reddy - our common friend is below

" "For me writing the blog has become a stress buster - I do feel some
sort of release after writing " - Navneet Bhushan,

I guess this can be a passionate statement which you can start using in
your writings/ interviews.. Believe me, people who write on writing can
use this statement for substantiating about the importance of writing in
life. "

-------------------

Importance of Writing in Life - is it important?

I think I am fortunate enough to have some sort of writing genes - as my Mother is a known author, but the question is - does it make sense for everyone to write something - a diary perhaps - well, I remember reading long back - a diary writing makes one aware of what is happening and actually helps in reflection at the end of the day...

May be Blogging is a new form of diary writing - except it is open to the world as I write!


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