Future and Innovation

The fastcompany article why future keeps catching us out says the following points

1. First, many futuristic ideas haven’t shown up, but given enough time they will.
2. Timing is everything and from a purely commercial standpoint, being too early can be just as disastrous as being too late. However, as the inventor Ray Kurzweil points out, "an invention has to make sense in the world which it is finished, not the world in which it started."
3. The second key takeaway is perhaps the point that the future usually arrives subtly and unannounced.
4. Technology tends to change fast and exponentially, while people tend to change slowly and incrementally.
5. why the future is never quite as we expect is because innovations that are logical and technically feasible, collide with people, who are irrational and emotional.

These points about future are explained in BLACK SWAN and FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS where the author claims it is not predicrtable - we dont know how rare events happen, how to predict them or in fact what form the Black Swan may take up is totally unknown, who would have thought in 1980's about the way Internet will make totally different societies than what we were in 1980's. Is this the way Evolution happen anyway?