This is the 351st post to the blog - an important milestone for me
Can the principles of chaos theory help in our forecasting techniques?
I found a very interesting paper from the book,
Managing Organizational Complexity: Philosophy, Theory, and Application
A Volume in: Managing the Complex, pages 167-182.
2005 by Information Age Publishing, Inc.
ISBN: 1-59311-319-6 (cloth), 1-59311-318-8 (paper)
The paper is
CHAOS-BASED PRINCIPLES OF FORECASTING
Liu Hong and Kurt A. Richardson
They explain the forecasting as
Quantitative
Trajectory Predicting
Range Forecasting
Qualitative Futuring
The import of the paper for me is that before getting into any forecast one need to understand how much of system is composed of what are called strange attractors or for that matter other attractors.
Given our obsession with forecasting - technological, business and what not, it is important to understand what are we forecasting and what really can be the limits to accuracy of forecasts!
My Book on Strategic Decision Making
Applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process
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