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Sunday, August 26, 2007

Predictive Simulation - DARPA Patent

Characterizing and predicting agents via multi-agent evolution is an interesting patent filed by DARPA. In a wargame simulation, this invention claims to be able to predict the behaviour of the actors based on their past behaviour, and the state of the game at the particular moment.

Wargames have been designed, developed and played to understand and study combat scenarios. The ability to predict the opponent's move in a combat situation is fraught with many imponderables. The claim of the patent although promising need to pass the real test of real wargames.

However, this is an interesting development. Digital pheromone infrastucture described in the patent indicates the use of Ant Colony Optimization and learning. The author's thesis can be downloaded as a pdf from here.

Bouquet of Thoughts

The article above is a very interesting way of writing or thriving in diversity. It says, it is not about one idea - but collection of recently articulated ideas that we cant create a story on. Thus the writer decided to write all these together as a single piece...

Networking : Win-Win Problem solving
Immigration (Come from far Away CFA workers) : Not a silver bullet yet retaining foreign students through certification is needed
Leadership: great leadership correlates to good things (I am not sure whether Great things happening imply great leadership as well :))
Mission Statements : Great if they mean something (e.g. " Yes, We Can")
Measuring Success: Compare with the best in the Globe not best in my own house!
Education: Will determine Success!! There is no other way.

This is really a great way to write an article, by the way!

System-of-Systems Thinking - a move away from Stovepipes

See the link above

Command Control Communications Computers Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance (C4ISR) systems are the central nerves of the modern military. The revolution in military affairs (RMA) has been achieved due to rapid and massive (it is really the momentum achieved) advances that these systems have taken that has revolutionized the way we conduct war. However, people the army doctrines and thinking hasnot kept pace with these advances - it continues to be Command control, hierarchical and autocratic - The new systems demands network thinking the so called system of systems thinking...

It is in the integrated rapid and massive response to any threat that the prinicples of success lies. At least military is thinking of changing its thinking...

Are our commercial business organizations listening!!! If they dont listen quickly, this time, it will be late, as their employees can have networked thinking with like minded people outside their stovepipes and create solutions that command and control organizations cant do anything - It is in networking and creating a common pool of solution creators that the key lies.

Do-it-yourself - The Age of Co-creationization

Do-it-yourself jeans
Travel Companies
Interiors of a Car including the music system
Exterior Paints for the new Car - Your individual personality should reflect in your Car!
Paint your home software
Customer Designed Jewelley
From ready to wear TO made to measure clothes
Designing your own games on Xbox 360

The article however is not able to think towards the trend - It is about Co-Creationization of the world. The producers should provide sub-systems, modules, ready to make components, let the customer create. This is the start of the scenario ... It is when every customer goes to the design factory to co-create the product the customer needs along with you - through virtual or real immersion the age of co-creation will reach full bloom. You need a Jeans - why dont you design - Logon to levi's and vitually talk to the guy in the factory who will create the jean that you need - u dont need to go to a store dear - you are on your laptop or your palmtop driving through the busy evening train back home from work- you design your Jeans, you design your beds, bedsheets, you design your own, create and njoy the process along with the guys who are ready to work on your product for you... obviously they dont know what you really Need - But do you know what you need!!!!

The New Sciences - Books that layman should read

The last two decades have suddenly changed the view of Science itself. It is not perfect geometries, perfect linear artificial objects, unidimensional man-made static world of artificial objects, but the really messy, uncertain, undeterministic, sochastic, non-linear, curvy, continuously evolving world that New Science is trying to understand - through modeling the non-linearity in dynamic computer models of reality.

Chaos theory rooted in physics and chemistry tells us why Uncertainty is the new reality. Bringing the Hiesenberg Undertainty Principle to the center of this science. Chaos is what we should be aware of - with its unseen abilities to create futures that are indetermistic - a small variation in initial conditions of a system can lead to diametrically opposite behaviours or more interestingly unknow behaviour of the system in future.

Complexity Theory rooted in Biology tells us, what are the possibilities in such a complex. How the complex system works and evolves.

Well, if you are interested - and mind you, you have to study the new science -as in schools they are not teaching it so far (oh what a pity!!!) - Please go through some of the books that may help you make sense (with as less maths as possible) (the order of the list below is random- you can start reading from any book) -

Complexity: Life at the Edge of Chaos
Chaos: Making a New Science
Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Software
Emergence: From Chaos to Order
Sync: The Emerging Science of Spontaneous Order
Order Out of Chaos
A New Kind of Science
The Fractal Geometry of Nature
Genetic Algorithms in Search, Optimization, and Machine Learning
Ant Colony Optimization
An Introduction to General Systems Thinking
The Emotion Machine: Commonsense Thinking, Artificial Intelligence, and the Future of the Human Mind
Cybernetics, Second Edition: or the Control and Communication in the Animal and the Machine
Godel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid
Metamagical Themas: Questing for the Essence of Mind and Pattern
The Hidden Connections: A Science for Sustainable Living

In the above list I am missing out many books of great authors, Nevertheless, this is a good sample to cover the New Science from multiple perspectives... Will add more to the list.. may be in the next post... Enjoy and Thrive in the New Science!!!!

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